Friday, December 10, 2010

Federal polling again quickly

There is a new Ipsos Reid federal poll out today but I do not have a link to the results on their site yet.   The headline numbers are:

  • Conservatives - 39% +4
  • Liberals - 29% -+0
  • NDP - 12% -4
  • BQ - 10% +2
  • Green - 9% - 2%

Using these numbers and the numbers from Abacus, Nanos, Ekos and Angus Reid all from this week means we have enough data to see if there are any new trends.

After a long time the Conservatives have a reasonable lead over the Liberals, though not large enough to be certain of an improvement if there were an election.

In working with these polls in a weighted manner and assuming incumbency advantages and a Green Party that will not be campaigning, I come to the conclusion a reasonable national estimate of support for the parties in an election as follows with the change from the 2008 election in parentheses:

  • Conservatives 38% (+0.4)
  • Liberals 29.5% (+3.3)
  • NDP 15% (-3.6)
  • BQ 9.5% (-0.5)
  • Greens 6.5% (-0.3)
  • Other 1.5% (+0.3)

The big shift since the last election seems to be a rise in Liberal support and fall in NDP support.

These sort of numbers do not speak well of a possible Conservative majority and it really does not offer the NDP much comfort.   The impact of the Conservatives is actually quite minimal and it is the Liberals that gain mainly from the NDP.   My estimate of the results of an this sort of an election is as follows:

  • Conservatives - 143
  • Liberals  - 95
  • NDP - 24
  • BQ - 45
  • Greens - 0
  • Other - 1

As I run the scenarios, there is little room for the Conservatives to gain seats, I can not come up with what I feel is a realistic result with these estimates of support that would bring a Conservative majority.

So what sort of numbers does it take for the Conservatives to get to a majority?   Realistically they need to be over 40% of the vote and have the Liberals stay below 30%.

A big impact is the Bloc, if their vote were fall to a new low and they were to lose another 10-15 seats, these seats would most likely be in areas of Conservative strength.  The Conservatives seem to be holding a decent strength in the Quebec City area.    A PQ government in Quebec City would be beneficial for federal forces, but it is still likely two years till we see an election in Quebec.

If the new seats were to be added the results would look something like this:

  • Conservatives - 165
  • Liberals - 101  
  • NDP - 26
  • BQ - 45
  • Other - 1

With 330 seats, the Conservatives are still not at a majority, though very close.   However you slice it, those 22 seats are going to go to areas that are already primarily electing Conservatives.
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