Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Election or Not? It looks like May 2nd for a Federal Election

I am not convinced that the NDP will be able to back a Conservative budget, I am not sure that they could do so and still have the party membership happy.   We know the Liberals are going to vote against the budget and the Bloc seems to be planning on doing the same.    It leaves it up to the NDP to stop an election coming and I have trouble seeing how they can vote for the budget.

It worries me what the Conservatives may offer to the NDP to try and stave off an election.

Another issue is the motion that will come forward that comes from the committee that has found the government in contempt of parliament.   If this motion passes the Prime Minister has no real choice but to ask for an election.    If he does not, it places the Governor General in an awkward spot as it is clear the parliament has no confidence in the government.   I can not see how any one of the opposition parties can not vote for the motion of contempt.

In either case, the vote that brings down the government is going to come this week it would seem, I suspect on the Liberal Opposition Day on Friday.  

This means we are most likely to have an election on Monday May 2nd.

One small piece of trivia, even if Stephen Harper were to lose the election, he will have served just long enough to become the 10th longest serving prime minister in Canadian history.   On April 25th he will pass Conservative PM RB Bennett.
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