Wednesday, March 9, 2011

The NDP Leadership Race

I have to admit the race is not catching my attention.   I am trying to pay attention, but there is nothing that is happening that is making want to read about the race.

The biggest issue we had was Nicholas Simons and social media passwords.

I am hoping that I will be more enthused after the leadership candidate debate on March 31st here in Victoria.  

I think the length of the campaign is too long and does not allow for people, even political junkies, to pay constant attention to the race.

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Where I stand on my thoughts on the candidates:

I was initially very much pro Mike Farnworth but his campaign has been so lackluster that I am not certain he has the ability to be the leader of the party.   He might make a good manager but there has to some sense of charisma, gravitas, and ability to inspire people for someone to be a good leader.

I suspect a Mike Farnworth government would be a competent and well run one, though I will disagree with some of the policies.   My question is can Mike Farnworth win an election?

The set of MLAs that he has come out to support him are people that I think are stronger members of the current caucus which I think says a lot about him.  

I personally like John Horgan and I think he has the public skills of what it takes to be a leader, but from what I hear, he is not a great manager people.   I think he is better suited to winning an election than running a government.  

I look at the MLAs that have come out in favour of John and the list does not say cabinet to me.

Adrian Dix is the one candidate that worries me the most because what I have seen of him in BC politics would say to me that he would not improving the civility of political discourse.   I think he is by far the best strategist of the bunch, but to me it all feels short term and not long term approached to politics.

I think he is the one most likely to be ready to run an election campaign and have the NDP win, I also think he could be the one that could be the most harmful to the party.    Can he govern?  I am not sure about this, I keep wondering if he would a new Glen Clark.

Nicholas Simons has no one of any significant standing within the NDP backing him, he does not matter to the race as he can do no better than fourth.

Dana Larsen, other than being backed by Tommy Chong, the same as Nicholas Simons.

Most likely to win an election:

  1. Adrian Dix
  2. John Horgan
  3. Mike Farnworth

Would run the best government

  1. Mike Farnworth
  2. Adrian Dix
  3. John Horgan

Would be an effective opposition 

  1. John Horgan
  2. Adrian Dix
  3. Mike Farnworth

Would improve political discourse in BC

  1. Mike Farnworth
  2. John Horgan
  3. Adrian Dix

Number of current and former MLAs and MPs supporting

  1. Adrian Dix 13
  2. Mike Farnworth 10
  3. John Horgan 6

Would On my running of these different criteria, Adrian Dix would seem to come out ahead, but I personally place the most importance on civility and good governance and with those criteria Mike Farnworth comes out on top.
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