Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Vancouver Point Grey By-election

By no means is a win a slam dunk for the Liberals in Vancouver Point Grey, the NDP has managed to get more votes in some elections than Gordon Campbell achieved in the last election.

Here is the list of the most votes in an election since it became a single member riding in 1991

  1. 2001 Gordon Campbell Liberal 13,340
  2. 1996 Gordon Campbell Liberal 12,637
  3. 2005 Gordon Campbell Liberal 12,498
  4. 1991 Darlene Marzari NDP 12,076
  5. 2009 Gordon Campbell Liberal 11,546
  6. 1996 Jim Green NDP 11,074
  7. 2005 Mel Lehan NDP 10,248
  8. 2009 Mel Lehan NDP 9232
  9. 1991 Barry Burke Liberal 9,022
  10. 2001 Varya Rubin Green 5094
  11. 2001 Am Johal NDP 4,441
  12. 2005 Damian Kettlewell 4,111
  13. 1991 Richard Wright Social Credit 2,817

In order of popular vote for all candidates the achieved at least 10%

  1. 2001 Gordon Campbell Liberal 56.14%
  2. 2009 Gordon Campbell Liberal 50.38%
  3. 1991 Darlene Marzari NDP 49.26%
  4. 1996 Gordon Campbell Liberal 48.86%
  5. 2005 Gordon Campbell Liberal 45.98%
  6. 1996 Jim Green NDP 42.81%
  7. 2009 Mel Lehan NDP 40.28%
  8. 2005 Mel Lehan NDP 37.70%
  9. 1991 Barry Burke Liberal 36.80%
  10. 2001 Varya Rubin Green 21.29%
  11. 2001 Am Johal NDP 18.57%
  12. 2005 Damian Kettlewell 15.12%
  13. 1991 Richard Wright Social Credit 11.49%

The races in order of how close they were:

  1. 1996 Liberals won by 1563 votes 
  2. 2005 Liberals won by 2250 votes
  3. 2009 Liberals won by 2314 votes
  4. 1991 NDP won by 3054 votes
  5. 2001 Liberals won by 8336 votes over the Greens, 8989 votes over the NDP

In none of the five elections has an incumbent been defeated in this riding.

The Liberals benefited from the riding being the one the premier represented.

Looking at all of this, can Christy Clark win here if she runs?    I suspect she is personally popular enough that she should be able to win though there are factors that could change this.

  • If she makes some sort of major misstep as premier.
  • If the BC Conservatives run a strong serious campaign in the riding
  • If the NDP runs a well known name in the riding.

By-elections are also notoriously low in turn out and can have some really odd results.  If the right of centre public just stays home, the NDP can win here in a by-election.
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