Monday, April 4, 2011

One interesting result from the latest Leger poll

One question they asked is if the choice was the final choice for the election.

Overall 50% said yes and 43% said no.

So based on their headline result of:

  • Conservatives - 37%
  • Liberals - 28%
  • NDP - 18%
  • Bloc - 10%
  • Greens - 8%

And the Final choice percentages

  • Conservatives - 64%
  • Liberals - 55%
  • NDP - 43%
  • Bloc - 64%
  • Greens - 26%
The Parties are certain of:
  • Conservatives - 23.7%
  • Liberals - 15.4%
  • NDP - 7.7%
  • Bloc - 6.4%
  • Greens - 2.1%
What I find interesting is that of the people that may still change their mind, the Conservatives. Liberals and NDP all lose roughly the same number of voters, but the impact on the bottom line is much bigger tp the NDP and Liberals than the Conservatives.  The Conservatives lose 13.3 percentage points, the Liberals 12.6 and NDP 10.3.   These numbers are not good for the Liberals, but really awful for the NDP.

Pro-rated to only consider people with a final decision
  • Conservatives - 42.9%
  • Liberals - 27.8%
  • NDP - 13.9%
  • Bloc - 11.6%
  • Green - 3.8%
Other than the Bloc and NDP numbers, these numbers look like they are in very close sync with the Nanos numbers.
  • Conservatives - 42.3%
  • Liberals - 28.4%
  • NDP - 16.4%
  • Bloc - 8.0%
  • Green - 3.8%
What does this all mean?    I am not certain, I just found the results an interesting coincidence.  It may mean that the Conservatives are much more solid in their seats than the Liberals or NDP and the battle is much more on the NDP and Liberal turf than the Conservative.

I am going to something not statistically valid, I am going to use data from two polls and see what I get from them.   Specifically I am going to use the willing to change their mind voters from Leger and apply the second choices from Ekos from about two weeks ago.

I am not going to show all the math, but what comes out of that is that the Greens and NDP gain the most while the Bloc and Conservatives gain the least.   The results of the two polls seem to say to me that the movement in the voters is between Greens, Liberals and NDP, with a smaller number flowing between the Conservatives and Liberals.   That said, I am pushing the data to an extent that is well outside of anything I could defend as a result that reasonably reflects the public will.
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