Thursday, April 28, 2011

Random thoughts on Polling Trends

  • In no national poll since the election started has Bloc managed to poll higher than their 2008 election results
  • In every poll result in Quebec, the NDP has been ahead of their 2008 election result.  
  • There was early evidence of the NDP increase in Quebec.  Four polls before the leader debates had the NDP over 20% in Quebec and first among federalist parties, though once tied with the Liberals
  • Since April 17th neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals have managed to break 20% in Quebec 
  • Till April 17th, the combined polling numbers for the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario was 75-80%, ahead of the 2008 election result.  In the last few days they have been below 70%
  • The Greens are trending at around 5.7% over the last several days, in the 2008 election over the same time they were trending at about 9.5%.  In general the Green polling numbers are about only marginally ahead of the same timeframe in 2006.  If last two elections are a guide, the Greens are headed for less than 5% of the national vote on election day
  • For what is worth, in six polls in Alberta in the last five days, the Liberals and NDP have been up from 2008 in all the polls, and the Conservatives and Greens down.
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