Monday, July 25, 2011

Fall Election Mania in Canada

I am not sure there has been a time in Canada when so many jurisdictions have gone to the polls at the same time.   On a six week period there will be five provincial elections, two territorial elections and local elections in BC.

  1. Prince Edward Island is on October 3rd - likely an easy win for the Liberals, a shut out of the Conservatives is not impossible
  2. Northwest Territories is on October 3rd - this election will be ignored because there are no party allegiances
  3. Manitoba is on October 4th - toss up, either the Conservatives or the NDP will win and odds are the Liberals will be shut out
  4. Ontario is on October 6th - Likely a Conservative win with a much strengthened NDP and a badly defeated Liberal party
  5. Newfoundland and Labrador is on October 11th - Conservatives should win again, but the NDP and Liberals should make gains
  6. Saskatchewan is on November 11th  Saskatchewan Party should win again and may gain seats from the NDP
  7. BC local elections are on November 15th 19th - these are relevant as Vancouver has more people that Newfoundland and Labrador and Surrey has only slightly less.
  8. Yukon will likely hold an election in early October

There is also the possibility of a BC election.   With a new premier in Alberta, we may see one there as well.

This October and November will see the most Canadians engaged in elections at the same time outside of federal elections than ever before.

The NDP, unless there is an election in BC, is likely to be reduced to being in power in one jurisdiction.   The last time that happened was between April 1988 and September 1990.

Other than holding PEI and making some seat gains in Newfoundland and Labrador, this fall looks bleak for the Liberals.

The provincial election that interests me the most is Manitoba.   This is because at the moment it is the only that looks competitive to me.    I will be following as many of them as a I can, but a race where the outcome is not certain is much more interesting.

Should, as I expect she will, Kathy Dunderdale win the election in Newfoundland and Labrador, her election will mark a win for a woman as leader in the largest province to date.
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