Thursday, June 23, 2016

Could the NDP run a focused campaign in 2016 and pick up just enough seats to win?

In 1996 the NDP managed to have a focused campaign to hold enough seats to stay in power. They needed 38 seats and won 39.

Top 13 NDP Target Seats
4 lost to BC Liberals in 2013
Fraser Nicola
Delta North
Surrey Fleetwood
Port Moody Coquitlam
(the NDP also lost Chilliwack Hope to the Liberals, but that was with a victory of almost 20pp)

(pp= precentage points)
9 where NDP was within 10pp
Boundary Similkameen
Maple Rigde MIssion 
Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
Surrey Guildford
Burnaby North
Vancouver Fraserview
North Vancouver Lonsdale
Courtenay Comox

Top 10 Liberal Target Seats
4 lost to the NDP
Burnaby Lougheed
Vancouver Point Grey
Vancouer Fairview
Saanich North and the Islands

6 where Liberals within 10pp
North Island
Cowichan Valley
Coquitlam Millardville
Burnaby Deer Lake
Burnaby Lougheed

Top 6 Green Target Seats and the margin they need to overcome

Saanich North and the Islands - 1.2pp
Victoria Beacon HIll - 15pp
Cowichan Valley - 21pp
Esquimalt Metchosin - 27pp
Nelson Creston - 30pp
Victoria Swan Lake - 31pp
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