Friday, August 5, 2011

Current Canadian First Ministers

I knew this in the back of my mind, but I had not really thought about it detail till I was listening to Ron Cheffins on CFAX today and he pointed out how short the term is of all the current first ministers.
  1. Jean Charest – Quebec – June 3rd 2003 – 3 elections
  2. Dalton McGuinty – Ontario – Oct 23rd 2003 – 2 elections
  3. Stephen Harper – Canada – Feb 6th 3006 – 3 elections
  4. Ed Stelmach December 14th 2006 – 1 election
  5. Robert Ghiz – PEI – June 12th 2007 – 1 election
  6. Flyod Roland – NWT – Oct 17th 2007 - na
  7. Brad Wall – Sask – Nov 21st 2007 – 1 election
  8. Eva Aariak – Nunavut – Nov 18h 2008 - na
  9. Darrell Dexter – Nova Scotia - June 9th 2009 – 1 election
  10. Greg Selinger – Manitoba – Oct 19th 2009 – 0 elections
  11. David Alward – New Brunswick - Oct 12th 2010 1 election
  12. Kathy Dunderdale – Newfoundland – Dec 3rd 2010 – 0 elections
  13. Christy Clark – BC – Match 14th 2011 – 0 elections
  14. Darrell Pasloski – Yukon - June 11 2011 = 0 elections
Four of the eleven that lead parties into elections have not faced the public in an election yet.    Odds are that Dalton McGuinty will be defeated shortly and Ed Stelmach is stepping down.

Who are the longest service 1st ministers?   Here is the list I come up with of the top 15:

  1. George Murray – Nova Scotia – 26 years 189 days - 1923
  2. Ernest Manning – Alberta – 25 years 195 days – 1968
  3. Oliver Mowatt – Ontario – 23 years 270 days – 1896
  4. Joey Smallwood – NFLD – 22 years 293 days - 1972
  5. Mackenzie King – Canada – 21 years 154 days – 1948
  6. John Braken – Manitoba – 20 years 160 days – 1943
  7. WAC Bennett – BC – 20 years 45 days - 1972
  8. John MacDonald – Canada – 18 years 359 days – 1891
  9. Maurice Duplessis – Quebec – 18 years 85 days 1959
  10. Richard Hatfied – New Brunswick – 16 years 350 days – 1987
  11. Tommy Douglas – Saskatchewan – 16 years 121 days - 1961
  12. Louis Alexandre Taschereau – Quebec 15 years 338 days - 1936
  13. Pierre Trudeau – Canada = 15 years 163 days – 1984
  14. Lomer Gouin – Quebec – 15 years 109 days - 1920
  15. Wilfrid Laurier - Canada – 15 years 86 days - 1911
It has been 24 years since someone made this list, it will not possible for anyone to make that list for another almost seven years.

I look at the list and see some clumping here.   Here are the number of them that served in each decade
  • 1860s 1
  • 1870s 2
  • 1880s 2
  • 1890s 4
  • 1900s 2
  • 1910s 1
  • 1920a 4
  • 1930s 4
  • 1940s 6
  • 1950s 5
  • 1960s 5
  • 1970s 4
  • 1980s 2
  • 1990s 0
As it is going right now, realistically we will not see someone break into the top ten within the next almost nine years.   The most realistic candidate to make to more than 15 years is Stephen Harper - the odds are in his favour to win the 2015 election.   

We had an era from the depression to the 1970s where long serving 1st ministers were common.  That shifted quickly to an era where longevity is not known among 1st ministers.

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