Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Elections this fall - some possible trends?

We have had six elections in provinces and territories this fall and have one more to go.   Northwest Territories election is with political parties, so I will not look at it.

The elections in PEI, Manitoba, Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Yukon all returned the sitting governments.   The coming election in Saskatchewan is likely to return the government as well.   We have also see all but one official oppositions remained the same as well - the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Yukon.

Overall the Liberals have fared the worst.  To date the Liberals have lost 21 sitting MLAs at the same time the NDP has gained 17 and the conservatives 9.   It looks like the Saskatchewan election will see a loss of seats for the NDP and a gain for the Saskatchewan party which likely means the two parties will have around a net gain of 13 MLAs nationwide.   The gap between the Liberal losses and the NDP and conservative gains come from vacant seats.

In total Canada has of 754 MLAs, or equivalent, 716 are in jurisdictions with political parties.   With the federal MPs, this brings it to 1024 people elected in partisan elections.  

Total elected MPs, MLAs, MHAs, and MNAs and changes due to elections this year:

  • Conservatives and Allies - 437 (+32)
  • Liberals - 265 (-64)
  • NDP - 255 (+84)
  • BQ/PQ - 50 (-43)
  • Ind and other - 15 (-2)  10 are in Quebec

The most dramatic change is how close the NDP and Liberals are now.   Before the federal election in May the Liberals had almost twice as many elected members as the NDP and were not that far behind the Conservatives.   114 of the Liberals are from provincial Liberal parties that are really a centre right coalition of liberals and conservatives, those being in BC and Quebec.

Currently in Canada there are 37 parties represented in the 12 legislatures nationwide with political parties.   Six are without leaders at the moment, 10 are lead by women and 21 by men.

Only four provinces, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia do not have a female leader of a party represented in their legislature.

The fall elections brought us only the third woman in Canadian history to lead a party to an election win. Kathy Dunderdale (PC) in Newfoundland and Labrador won a reduced majority, but still won the election.   At the same time two women became elected official opposition leaders, Olive Crane (PC) in PEI and Elizabeth Hanson (NDP) in Yukon.  Lorraine Michael(NDP) in Newfoundland and Labrador came close as well coming second in popular vote but third in seats.

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