Going on where the NDP has managed to win federally and provincially in the last generation, here is what I get to:
- The NDP has to win a majority of the seats in BC, this has happened in the past and my take on Mulcair is that he is the sort of guy that will play very well in BC. 15 extra seats here
- The NDP can gain a number of seats in Saskatchewan 5 seats here
- The NDP can gain a majority of the seats in Manitoba 6 seats here
- If in Quebec Thomas Mulcair can be the primary federalist he can gain seats at the expense of the Liberals - 5 seats here.
- In Nova Scotia the NDP government remains popular, winning the majority of the seats there is realistic, 5 more seats
- I can see another 5 seats from Alberta, PEI, Newfoundland, New Brunswick and the north.
We get to 122 seats for the NDP before we look at Ontario. The NDP needs to win 47 seats in Ontario. They hold 22 at the moment. I think 27 more seats is possible. There will be 15 more seats in Ontario which means the NDP would only have to win about 2/5ths of the seats in the province.
Where does the NDP need to be polling to achieve a majority? I think it could be done with around 38% if the Conservatives are at 36%. 38% is achievable for the NDP based on how well they have done across the nation in the last generation.
The odds of a Conservative of NDP minority government is low as long as the Bloc does not make a big comeback. If the Liberals, Bloc and Green have a combined 25-35 seats, a minority government becomes unlikely. I means the top two parties have to almost equal in total seats.
The best thing the Conservatives could do to weaken the NDP would be breath life back into the Bloc.