Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Polls of the BC political landscape

A Mustel poll was released today, the first one in a very long time. This the seventh poll since late January with six firms having been in the field.

NDP range from 39%-47%, the highest and lowest numbers both being from Forum polls.
Liberals range from 21% - 36%
Conservatives range from 13% - 22%
Greens range from 6% - 10%

If we look at the five polls without the two Forum ones
NDP range from 42% - 45%
Liberals range from 28% - 36%
Conservatives range from 13% - 19%
Greens range from 6% - 10%

Party averages - which is not a statistically valid thing to do

  • Party   with Forum  without Forum
  • NDP           43.0    43.0
  • Liberals      29.7    32.2
  • Conservatives 17.4    15.8
  • Greens         8.4     8.2

What I am seeing here is that the methodology Forum is using to poll is out of sync with the other companies and seems to show more support for the Conservatives and less for the Liberals.   The results for the NDP and Greens remain the same.  

If go back into December, we see that the Forum poll has the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 23%, once again at odds with other results.   Forum is not the only company I have concerns about, I have long been concerned about the Mustel numbers, the NDP seems to be low with them and the Greens and Liberals high but not wildly so with either.

What we have are broad two trends in the polling in BC

  •             Either  or
  • NDP           44%   43%
  • Liberals      23%   30%
  • Conservatives 23%   17%
  • Greens         8%    8%

In the first we would see a huge NDP landslide, in the second would we see a strong NDP government but with a strong Liberal opposition and a small Conservative caucus.

The by-elections are not going to show us which trend is the correct one, they are normally very bad predictors of general elections.

For the moment, I am placing more weight in the five other companies than in the Forum numbers.   Though if you read this blog you know of my complete scepticism about the way polling is done in Canada.

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