Friday, April 6, 2012

Trying to predict the by-elections

I have very little data to work with, but here is my stab at what I think is going on:

Port Moody - Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini NDP - 55%
Dennis Marsden Liberal - 30%
Christine Clark Conserative - 15%

Chilliwack Hope
John Martin Conservative - 40%
Laurie Throness Liberal - 35%
Gwen O'Mahonney NDP - 23%
Lewis Dahlby Libertarian - 2%

Without local polling I have to rely on what bits and pieces I am hearing from the various campaigns.   My prediction is that the Liberals will come second in both of the by-elections and that the total vote for the three parties over the two by-elections will be roughly equal.

Just a quick final note on Lewis Dahlby, everything I can find out about him is that he lives in Port Moody, so why is he running in Chilliwack Hope and not the riding he can vote in?
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