I have very little data to work with, but here is my stab at what I think is going on:
Port Moody - Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini NDP - 55%
Dennis Marsden Liberal - 30%
Christine Clark Conserative - 15%
Chilliwack Hope
John Martin Conservative - 40%
Laurie Throness Liberal - 35%
Gwen O'Mahonney NDP - 23%
Lewis Dahlby Libertarian - 2%
Without local polling I have to rely on what bits and pieces I am hearing from the various campaigns. My prediction is that the Liberals will come second in both of the by-elections and that the total vote for the three parties over the two by-elections will be roughly equal.
Just a quick final note on Lewis Dahlby, everything I can find out about him is that he lives in Port Moody, so why is he running in Chilliwack Hope and not the riding he can vote in?
4 comments:
"total vote for the three parties over the two by-elections will be roughly equal" I don't understand what you're saying
NDP 55% + 23% = 78% / 2 ~ 38%
BC Lib 30% + 35% = 65% / 2 ~ 33%
Con BC 15% + 40% = 55% / 2 ~ 28%
I was talking votes and not percentages. I see Chilliwack hoping with a higher turn out than Port Moody Coquitlam
the NDP took 33% last election,those are solid numbers for the NDP, There is a maJor split on the right, this ones a horse race.
with the NDP taking 33% in the last Chilliwack election ( and theese are the die hard supporters ) Depending on voter turnout, this ones a horse race .
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