Friday, April 6, 2012

Trying to predict the by-elections

I have very little data to work with, but here is my stab at what I think is going on:

Port Moody - Coquitlam
Joe Trasolini NDP - 55%
Dennis Marsden Liberal - 30%
Christine Clark Conserative - 15%

Chilliwack Hope
John Martin Conservative - 40%
Laurie Throness Liberal - 35%
Gwen O'Mahonney NDP - 23%
Lewis Dahlby Libertarian - 2%

Without local polling I have to rely on what bits and pieces I am hearing from the various campaigns.   My prediction is that the Liberals will come second in both of the by-elections and that the total vote for the three parties over the two by-elections will be roughly equal.

Just a quick final note on Lewis Dahlby, everything I can find out about him is that he lives in Port Moody, so why is he running in Chilliwack Hope and not the riding he can vote in?


Anonymous said...

"total vote for the three parties over the two by-elections will be roughly equal" I don't understand what you're saying

NDP 55% + 23% = 78% / 2 ~ 38%
BC Lib 30% + 35% = 65% / 2 ~ 33%
Con BC 15% + 40% = 55% / 2 ~ 28%

Bernard said...

I was talking votes and not percentages. I see Chilliwack hoping with a higher turn out than Port Moody Coquitlam

Anonymous said...

the NDP took 33% last election,those are solid numbers for the NDP, There is a maJor split on the right, this ones a horse race.

Anonymous said...

with the NDP taking 33% in the last Chilliwack election ( and theese are the die hard supporters ) Depending on voter turnout, this ones a horse race .