Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Is there a future for electoral reform in BC after 2013

This is not a prediction of a BC 2013 election but just a scenario for consideration

Assuming the votes splits:

  • NDP 45%
  • Liberals 29%
  • Conservatives 15%
  • Greens 10%
So what could this mean for seats?  Using election prediction software you can end up with the following result:
  • NDP  77 (75-79)
  • Liberals 5 (4-10)
  • Conservatives 1(0-3)
  • Greens 0
  • Independents 2
The NDP ends up with over 90% of the seats for less than half the vote.  How much will this result push the desire for electoral reform in BC?  Who would be the champion?   Will the left be willing to consider any electoral reform after a huge win?

A really big landslide will increase the desire by the public for election results that more closely reflect the way people voted.  But is there anyone that could capitalize on it?  If it is a party on the right side, it could not happen till they win a general election which would be no earlier than 2017 and realistically one has to think it is in 2021.  Will a landslide NDP win in 2013 hold public attention long enough to see a change in the 20s?
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