Friday, August 24, 2012

Early prediction for the by-elections

Keeping in mind this is before any of the parties have chosen their candidates

Calgary Centre - 100% chance of a Conservative win
  1. Conservatives 50%
  2. Greens 20%
  3. Liberals 15%
  4. NDP 15%
Durham - 95% chance of a Conservative win
  1. Conservatives  45%
  2. NDP 30%
  3. Liberals 20%
  4. Greens 5%
Etobicoke Centre - there may or may not be a by-election here - 60% chance of a Conservative win
  1. Conservatives 40%
  2. Liberals 35%
  3. NDP 20% 
  4. Greens 5% or 0% if they do not run a candidate here, if that happens I see it going CP 41%, Libs 37%, NDP 22%
Victoria - 75% chance of an NDP win
  1. NDP 38%
  2. Greens 28%
  3. Conservatives 24%
  4. Liberals 10%
Overall if get to:
  1. Conservatives 2.6 seats
  2. NDP 0.8 seats
  3. Liberals 0.4 seats
  4. Greens 0.2 seats
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