I know I am writing a lot about the Quebec election, but it is an important watershed election in Quebec. The result will have strong implications on national politics since the government has almost no seats in Quebec and the government in waiting is majority from Quebec.
Quebec Solidiare is I think the most left wing party in Canada has elected anyone in recent memory. In 2008 they elected on MNA with only 3.84% of the vote. In this election their support seems to be running about twice the level of 2008. How many seats could they win?
Mercier
I am reasonably certain they should be able to win Amir Khadir's seat of Mercier again.
Gouin
In Gouin you have QS co-leader Françoise David running. QS is up in the polls and the PQ, who hold the seat, are down. The two shifts are enough that I think this seat should be in range for QS to win.
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Next one is Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques where Manon Massé is running again for QS. She came third in 2008 with 15.40% of the vote and the winning MNA got 46.62% of the vote. This seat is a stretch for QS but not outside of the realm of possible. The sitting MNA for the PQ is not running again. In the April 10th 2006 by-election Manon Massé ran for QS and achieved 22.20% of the vote though placed third.
If we take the PQ support down 2 percentage points for being less popular than in 2008 and then drop them 5-10% for not having an incumbent, we get to a support level of 35-40%.
CAQ is unlikely to do much better than 10% with most of that coming from the Liberals. What will the Liberal vote be here? Very hard to say other than everything indicates it will drop.
There is no Green running in this seat which opens up another 5% or so of left of centre vote that could go to QS.
Manon also has in her favour that she has run twice before and is a know quantity to the public.
QS could gain 4 points from the Greens and 5 to 8 points from the PQ bringing them to 24-26% of the vote. That should be enough to bring her into second place but she still has a long gap to overcome to win. She would have to either really cut into PQ support or be able to get people that voted Liberal to vote for her. Both would be hard to achieve but it is within the realm of possible.
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At one time. We were very upset that Quebec wanted to separate from the rest of Canada. No-one seems to mind as much these days. Scores of Canadian don't feel this is Canada anymore anyway. We were warned, if Harper supposedly WON his majority, we could kiss Canada good-bye.
Canada is rotten to the core with, corruption, lies, deceit, thefts, dirty politics, dirty tactics, dictatorship and cheating to win.
How can we object to any province, that wants to get away from Harper and Ottawa? Canada is being sold out to foreign country's by Harper. If provinces were their own little country's, they would be, much more safe from Harper's treachery.
We need to take our resources and assets away from Harper's control. We most certainly need to take our tax dollars away from Harper. Harper started out, with a $13 billion dollar surplus. He now has Canada in the worst debt, in the recorded history of this country. what about that, Mr. Flaherty.
Flaherty the fool said. Huge corporations are hoarding all of the money. We have been yelling about Harper giving billions of our tax dollars to his charities.. Corrupt greedy rip-off banks, mines, big business and his favorite charity, big oil. Harper also gives them huge tax reductions. Harper has been doing this crap, for absolute years. As if Mr. Flaherty didn't know. Mr. Flaherty also loves his luxury hotel suites too, as does Mr. MacKay. Bev Oda isn't the only one, that was pissing our tax dollars away. All of them do.
Alberta is really the only province that is safe from Harper. They have the oil, Harper wants to give to Communist China, to line his own coffers. Harper and MacKay, have grandiose plots, to have Canada a military super power. He needs trillions for that, and to hell with the people.
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