Thursday, August 30, 2012

Quebec Solidaire - can they win three seats?

I know I am writing a lot about the Quebec election, but it is an important watershed election in Quebec.  The result will have strong implications on national politics since the government has almost no seats in Quebec and the government in waiting is majority from Quebec.

Quebec Solidiare is I think the most left wing party in Canada has elected anyone in recent memory.  In 2008 they elected on MNA with only 3.84% of the vote.   In this election their support seems to be running about twice the level of 2008.  How many seats could they win?

I am reasonably certain they should be able to win Amir Khadir's seat of Mercier again.  

In Gouin you have QS co-leader Françoise David running.   QS is up in the polls and the PQ, who hold the seat, are down.   The two shifts are enough that I think this seat should be in range for QS to win.

Next one is Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques where Manon Massé is running again for QS.  She came third in 2008 with 15.40% of the vote and the winning MNA got 46.62% of the vote.   This seat is a stretch for QS but not outside of the realm of possible.   The sitting MNA for the PQ is not running again.  In the April 10th 2006 by-election Manon Massé ran for QS and achieved 22.20% of the vote though placed third.

If we take the PQ support down 2 percentage points for being less popular than in 2008 and then drop them 5-10% for not having an incumbent, we get to a support level of 35-40%.

CAQ is unlikely to do much better than 10% with most of that coming from the Liberals.  What will the Liberal vote be here?  Very hard to say other than everything indicates it will drop.

There is no Green running in this seat which opens up another 5% or so of left of centre vote that could go to QS.  

Manon also has in her favour that she has run twice before and is a know quantity to the public.

QS could gain 4 points from the Greens and 5 to 8 points from the PQ bringing them to 24-26% of the vote.   That should be enough to bring her into second place but she still has a long gap to overcome to win.  She would have to either really cut into PQ support or be able to get people that voted Liberal to vote for her.  Both would be hard to achieve but it is within the realm of possible.

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