Wednesday, August 22, 2012

That Forum Poll in Quebec


Various pundits have been skeptical about the latest polling numbers from Forum that were in the National Post today.   So how odd are the results?  I do not think they are nearly as strange as the Forum results on August 1st.

Pollster      Lib PQ  CAQ QS Vert Oth
Forum Aug 20  35  29  24   9  2   1
Forum Aug 13  31  35  25   6  2   0
Forum Aug  7  32  34  24   6  3   0
Forum Aug  1  38  39  14   4  3   0

The Forum polls on August 1st and 20th are definitely oddly of sync with the other polls while the ones on August 7th and 13th are broadly close to the others.   

When you look at the nine polls since July 31st Forum has some "interesting results".   Of the highest and lowest results for the four largest parties, six of the eight values are from Forum when only 3-4 should be.
Highest PQ - 39% Forum August 1st
Lowest PQ - 29% Forum August 20th
Highest Liberal - 38% Forum August 1st
CAQ lowest - 14% Forum August 1st
QS highest - 9% Forum August 20th
QS lowest - 4% Forum August 1st

Ranking the results for the PQ in the polls Forum has been higher for the PQ than CROP and Leger expect for this latest poll:
39% - Forum Aug 1
35% - Forum Aug 13
34% - CROP Aug 14
34% - Forum August 7th
33% - Leger Aug 16
33% - Leger July 31
32% - Leger Aug 8
32% - CROP Aug 8
29% - Forum 20th

When we look at the Liberals all their best results come from Forum:
38% - Forum Aug 1st
35% - Forum Aug 20th
32% - Forum Aug 7th
31% - Forum Aug 13th
31% - Leger Aug 8th
31% - Leger Aug 8th
29% - CROP Aug 8th
28% - Leger Aug 16th
27% - CROP Aug 16th

Combining the PQ and Liberal results is interesting because of the order of the pollsters:
77% - Forum Aug 1st
66% - Forum Aug 13th
66% - Forum Aug 7th
64% - Forum Aug 20th
64% - Leger July 31st
63% - Leger Aug 13th
61% - Leger Aug 16th
61% - CROP Aug 14th
61% - CROP Aug 8th

I think there is something fundamentally wrong with how Forum polls.
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