Sunday, September 9, 2012

BC Conservative SGM Yesterday - The Dissenters as a Spent Force

Life intervened and I have not had a chance to post on this.

From my sources there were about 75-100 people at the BC Conservatives at the SGM.   Interestingly none of the public dissenters were at the meeting.   Given that amendments could be made from the floor, the SGM was a good chance for the anti-Cummins forces to make their coup easier.  

The only thing of substance that passed was how and when the leadership review would be conducted this year.   Only 50% +1 would be needed (the constitution otherwise calls for 60%) to trigger a review.  More importantly, people can bring their ballots to the AGM on September 22nd in Langley and have them counted at that time.   I do think this will make it easier for a leadership review and allow for campaigning through to the convention.   I expect Cummins to get a 70-75% vote in favour.

Why do I think Cummins will do reasonably well?   The opposition is clearly not large or well organized.   I suspect that we have seen the names of all the core dissidents in the media and it really does not run any deeper than that.   By not showing up at the SGM the dissenters I suspect could not build a large enough group to have any impact  on the results.   It would only have taken 180 to 200 people to come as a group to the SGM to control it and change the rules to make life impossible for John Cummins.

If a group of 5-6 can not organize 200 people to come to a meeting clearly there is no strong organizational skill.    In any contested provincial nomination I would expect serious candidates to be able to show up with at least 300 supporters.   When it comes to a provincial level thing like the SGM, the numbers should be much higher.

The dissenters have really only achieved a few things and none of them good, they burned up most of the media credibility the party had built up with John Cummins as leader, they have depressed fundraising, and they have scared off any serious candidates.
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