Thursday, September 20, 2012

What is the impact of Andrew Weaver running for the BC Greens?

photo by Bruce Stotesbury of the Times Colonist

I am surprised to hear Andrew Weaver is seeking to run for the BC Green party in the May 2013 election.

Andrew Weaver is part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change team awards the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.   He is world renown.  He is also the biggest name to ever run for the BC Green party.  This is a serious coup for Jane Sterk.

He may be the person with the biggest international profile to run for any party in the 2013 election.  

So what is the impact of having such a big name run for the Greens?   In 2005 and 2009 with effectively paper candidates the Greens managed to get around 2350 votes.  Just through a well funded properly run campaign the Green vote will rise, the addition of a star candidate will raise that even more.  25% is a realistic range for Andrew Weaver to achieve.

I see Andrew Weaver gaining an equal number of votes from non-voters and the NDP and a slightly lower number from the Liberals.  I see him getting 6000 to 7500 votes.   This will not be enough to win.   I see the NDP vote going down, but not below 8000 to 8500.   I see Ida Chong getting 7000 to 8000 votes.  For the record I see the Conservatives taking 2000 to 3000 votes.

What it means is that Jessica Van der Veen of the NDP is still the odds on favorite to win but Ida Chong has a much better chance of re-election now.   At the moment I do not give Andrew Weaver good odds of getting elected, I will wait and see how his campaign plays out.

Oak Bay Gordon Head MLAs

  • 1996- Current - Ida Chong - Liberal
  • 1989-1996 Elizabeth Cull - NDP
  • 1979-1989 Brian Smith - Social Credit
  • 1978-1979 Vic Stephens - PC - party leader 1977-1980
  • 1969-1977 George Wallace - Socred (69-71) then PC (71-77) PC leader 1973-77
  • 1968-1969 - Allan Leslie Cox - Liberal
  • 1960-1968 Alan Brock MacFarlane - Liberal

Electoral History:
Elect  Liberals        NDP         Greens      Others
2009 11,877 46.53% 11,316 44.34% 2,330  9.13%
2005 13,433 47.52% 12,016 42.47% 2,379  8.41%    454 1.60%
2001 14,588 57.31%  5,789 22.74% 4,666 18.33%    411 1.62%  
1996 12,340 46.59% 11,700 44.17%   566  2.14%  1,880 7.11%(3)

     Liberals       NDP          Social Credit   Others
1991 9,685 36.46% 10,522 36.91%  5,556 20.91%  801 2.82%(3)
1989 2,174  9.11% 10,807 45.26% 10,430 43.69%  465 1.94%(3)

     Liberals       NDP        Social Credit    PC      others
1986 2,141 8.26%  8,994 34.70% 13,735 53.00% 1,047 4.04%
1983   635 2.38%  9,580 35.91% 14,008 52.50% 1,678 6.29% 779 2.92%(3)
1979 -----------  6,741 26.17% 12,730 49.43% 6,284 24.40% 

As Oak Bay Libs     NDP        Social Credit  PC         Others
1978 2,350 13.12% 3,498 19.52% 5,109 28.52%  6,904 38.54% 54 0.03%
1975   359  1.62% 2,067 9.31%  8,274 37.29% 11,489 51.78%
1972 3,253 16.47% 7,609 32.89% 4,752 24.06% 10,319 52.06%
1969 6,656 36.37% 2,105 11.50% 9,542 52.13%
1968 7,892 59.68%   654  4.95% 4,678 35.38%
1966 8,118 54.48%   976  6.55% 5,808 38.97%
1963 4,457 42.77%   469  4.50% 3,770 36.17%  1,726 16.56%
1960 4,558 44.46%   701  6.84% 3,780 36.87%  1,212 11.82%

Susan Brice ran for Social Credit in 1989 by-election and 1991 election
Mel Couvleier ran for the Liberals in 1972
Peter Pollen ran for Social Credit in the 1968 by-election
George Murdoch ran for Social Credit in 1960

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