Friday, October 5, 2012

New call to get rid of John Cummins - from Alex Tsukamis

Update 6:45 pm - Ryan Warawa told me he had not signed the letter leaving 20 names

Update at 3:45pm - there are strange media reports about this and apparently one person had their name on this list when it should not have been.   Almost sounds like this letter was not finalized before it came.   The BC Conservatives stated on CFAX that they had not received the letter.

Alex Tsumkamis has been forwarded a letter from 2120 BC Conservative Constituency Association Presidents calling for John Cummins to step down as leader of the BC Conservatives.  I recognize some of the names of people that were actively calling for the leadership review but others on the list of 2120 are new to me as being opposed to John Cummins.  I can only see one name that was on the Friends of John Cummins list that is on this new list, that being Ryan Warawa.

Why now?   Yes, Cummins did not get a rousing endorsement for his leadership at the recent AGM but what is served now by calling for him to resign now?   The story of internal fighting was beginning to subside.  Why not wait till after the provincial election?

The realistic goal in this election for the BC Conservatives is to come third in popular vote with 15% of the vote +-3 percentage points.   At best they could come a competitive second in a few ridings.   Does getting rid of John Cummins now get you any closer to this or does it move you further away?

Is there anyone out there that could give the BC Conservatives the same credibility as John Cummins?  I have not heard of any alternatives that would be taken as seriously by the media or public as Cummins.   This man is being backed by people that have won elections whereas among the ones opposed I do not see anyone that has been elected to the legislature or parliament.

Did people think about this much before sending out the letter?   How many people will leave the party if John Cummins ends up resigning?   Will this improve the fundraising?  Will this improve media coverage?

In looking over the list of Friends of John Cummins versus the 2120 that signed the letter for him to resign, there is a divide going on that is connected to where the party could do well and where not.  The Friends of John Cummins come from more of the ridings where the party is likely to do better and has a chance to come second.  

Among the 2120 opposed, five are from the Victoria area where the party is headed to a very distant fourth place finish, they will be lucky to break 4%.   65 are from the City of Vancouver where the party will not be a relevant factor in the election.  6 are from the tricities, once again not a hot bed for the party.   In fact only two of the people on the list come from ridings where the party has any chance of being relevant, Kevin Chapman in Abbotsford South (this was John Van Dongen's riding association), and Lyle Collie in Chilliwack.

If this revolt drives out the people like Dennis MacKay, Beryl Ludwig or Alan Forseth from the party what do people think will happen on the ground in an election?
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