Friday, October 5, 2012

How serious is this latest revolt against John Cummins?

(6:45 PM Ryan Warawa told me he did not sign this letter)

First off, a number of the people on the list that is on Alex Tsumkamis site are the same ones that pushed for the leadership review and then took part in trying to get a anti-Cummins board elected.  It seems to be a case of sour grapes as far as I can see.   How serious are these people and how much of the party strength are they?

I am writing this because Alex Tsukamis makes the presidents that signed the letter into the majority of the constituency association presidents which seems odd as there are now only 20 of them and in total I can account for 55 current Conservative associations in BC.  He discounts the number of active ones to 35 and therefore the letter signers are the majority but he do never considers if the people signing the letter are from the associations that are only there in name and are not active.

The ridings listed in the letter are in 18 of 20 cases locations where I would be very surprised if the party managed to get much beyond 5% in a best case scenario.  They come from areas where Social Credit did badly in 1991, Reform badly in 1996 and Unity badly in 2001.   It seems odd that the presidents from ridings where the party is likely to be weakest are the ones calling for Cummins to resign.

I thought I would measure how robust the Conservative constituency associations are and see where the opposition comes from from.   My metrics are how long the CAs have been around and how much money they raised in 2011.

There are 16 current CAs that were formed before December 31st 2010 - 4 are calling for Cummins to resign.  I know of five that are pro Cummins and six more that I can not confirm are pro-Cummins but I have seen some indication that they-

Ridings in bold are the ones where the president is calling for resignation - the $ number is how much was raised in 2011.
  1. ALBERNI-PACIFIC RIM - $3,917.30  
  3. CHILLIWACK - $417
  5. COMOX VALLEY - $5,347.44
  6. ESQUIMALT-ROYAL ROADS - $1,336.34
  7. NANAIMO -  $7150 - pro Cummins
  8. NANAIMO-NORTH COWICHAN - $20,212.39 - pro Cummins
  9. NORTH ISLAND - $952.50 - pro Cummins
  10. OAK BAY-GORDON HEAD - $2890.72
  11. PARKSVILLE-QUALICUM - $3491.22 - pro Cummins
  13. SAANICH SOUTH - $380
  14. SHUSWAP - $2473 - pro Cummins
  15. VERNON-MONASHEE - $1545.36
So of the long standing CAs, the dissenters are in the minority, only 25% calling for resignation.

There are 29 CAs that formed in 2011, 9 of them are calling for John Cummins to resign
  2. ABBOTSFORD WEST - $0 - pro Cummins
  3. ABBOTSFORD-MISSION -  $920 - pro Cummins
  6. COWICHAN VALLEY - $1280 - pro Cummins
  7. DELTA NORTH -  $500
  8. DELTA SOUTH - $600
  9. FORT LANGLEY-ALDERGROVE - $0 - pro Cummins
  10. JUAN DE FUCA - $615.13
  11. LANGLEY - $0
  13. NEW WESTMINSTER - $197.60
  15. NORTH VANCOUVER-LONSDALE - $60 - pro Cummins
  16. PORT COQUITLAM - $25
  17. RICHMOND EAST - $0
  18. STIKINE - $200 - pro Cummins 
  21. SURREY-PANORAMA - $100 - pro Cummins
  23. SURREY-WHITE ROCK - $125
  25. VANCOUVER-WEST END - $0 - Ryan Warawa told me he did not put his name to the letter
  29. WESTSIDE-KELOWNA - $250 - pro Cummins
Of the 2011 formed associations, just under one third are calling for resignation.

There are the 10 ridings I know formed this year, 7 are calling for the resignation of John Cummins.
  1. Burnaby Deer Lake
  2. Coquitlam Maillardville
  3. Burnaby North
  4. Kamloops South Thompson - pro Cummins
  5. Kamloops North Thompson - pro Cummins
  6. Vancouver Langara
  7. Vancouver Point Grey
  8. Vancouver False Creek 
  9. Vancouver Quilchena
  10. Surrey Whalley
Were some of these CAs formed just to go after Cummins?   I do not know but it seems possible and probably a good organizing tactic.   The news ones against Cummins are all centrally located in the lower mainland making it easy for someone to have organized them.

Of the 44 ridings that filed a financial return in 2011, only 10 raised more than $1000 and only one of those has come out against Cummins.  This says to me that among the best organized CAs in BC there is no almost no interest in getting rid of Cummins.

Nine more CAs raised between $250 and $999, four of those are calling for Cummins to resign.  These are the CAs I would consider barely alive and among them the anti-Cummins forces are in the minority.

So of the 13 riding associations that existed on December 31st 2011 and came out against John Cummins, 9 of them really have no history of any activity.   Only five of the 20 could really be called moderately functioning CAs which means more than 3/4s of the presidents signing where signing this letter representing a very weak or very new CA.

My estimate is that this revolt represents 15% to 25% of the party and few new people since the AGM.  It would seem even though there is this new revolt, John Cummins' support in the party is likely holding steady or improving.

1. Kevin Chapman, President Abbotsford South
2. Lyle Collie, President Chilliwack
3. Robbie Armstrong, President Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
4. Gordon Reid, President, Victoria Swan Lake
5. Antonio Simoes, President Burnaby Deer Lake
6. Bill Rusin, President Burnaby Lougheed
7. Grigori Khaskin, President Coquitlam Malardville
8. Ariane Eckardt, President Burnaby North
9. David Millar, President Burnaby Edmonds
10. Milan Kljajic, President Vancouver Kingsway
11. Ryan Warawa, President Vancouver West End He told me he did not put his name on this letter
12. David Mohr, President Vancouver Langara
13. Ian Tootill, President Vancouver Pt Grey
14. David Wilder, President Vancouver Quilchena
15. Allison Patton, President Surrey Whiterock
16. Kulwinder Turna, President Surrey Tynehead
17. Kamaljit Thind, President Surrey Whalley
18. Bruce Carson, President Saanich North and the Islands
19. Shirley Diggle, President Saanich South
20. Bob Bauder, President Juan de Fuca
21. Michael Hubbard, President Esquimalt-Royal Roads

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