Thursday, November 15, 2012

By-election predictions

Now that there has been some more polling and we have seen several weeks of campaigning, I thought I would try and predict the by-elections.

Durham
Erin O'Toole CPC    13,000 - 43.3%
Larry O'Connor NDP   9,000 - 30.0%
Grant Humes Liberal  6,000 - 20.0%
Virginia Ervin Green 2,000 -  6.7%

The only possible surprise in Durham could be a lowered turnout from CPC supporters making the race look close on November 26th.

Victoria
Murray Rankin NDP       18,000 - 48.6%
Donald Galloway Green    9,500 - 25.7%
Paul Summerville Liberal 5,000 - 13.5%
Dale Gann CPC            4,500 - 12.2%

This is a change from my first estimate about three weeks ago.   Having seen the Rankin campaign and read the polls, I see him winning with a strong mandate.   I expect the CPC vote will be low because a lot of right of centre people will stay home this time around

Calgary Centre
Joan Croakatt CPC    13,000 - 37.1%
Harvey Locke Liberal 11,000 - 31.4%
Chris Turner Green    9,000 - 25.7%
Dan Meades NDP        2,000 -  5.7%

In Calgary I think an older more conservative set of people will end up deciding to vote and this will boost Crockatt to the win.  I think that Chris Turner and Harvey Locke will squeeze the NDP vote but will not be able to get out enough voters to win.

I had been expecting to see a low voter turn out for Calgary Centre, only 25,000 total votes, I now think it will be 35,000.

Out of interest, my estimates of total votes for each party
CPC      30,500
NDP      29,000
Liberals 22,000
Greens   20,500
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