Now that there has been some more polling and we have seen several weeks of campaigning, I thought I would try and predict the by-elections.
Erin O'Toole CPC 13,000 - 43.3%
Larry O'Connor NDP 9,000 - 30.0%
Grant Humes Liberal 6,000 - 20.0%
Virginia Ervin Green 2,000 - 6.7%
The only possible surprise in Durham could be a lowered turnout from CPC supporters making the race look close on November 26th.
Murray Rankin NDP 18,000 - 48.6%
Donald Galloway Green 9,500 - 25.7%
Paul Summerville Liberal 5,000 - 13.5%
Dale Gann CPC 4,500 - 12.2%
This is a change from my first estimate about three weeks ago. Having seen the Rankin campaign and read the polls, I see him winning with a strong mandate. I expect the CPC vote will be low because a lot of right of centre people will stay home this time around
Joan Croakatt CPC 13,000 - 37.1%
Harvey Locke Liberal 11,000 - 31.4%
Chris Turner Green 9,000 - 25.7%
Dan Meades NDP 2,000 - 5.7%
In Calgary I think an older more conservative set of people will end up deciding to vote and this will boost Crockatt to the win. I think that Chris Turner and Harvey Locke will squeeze the NDP vote but will not be able to get out enough voters to win.
I had been expecting to see a low voter turn out for Calgary Centre, only 25,000 total votes, I now think it will be 35,000.
Out of interest, my estimates of total votes for each party