Friday, November 23, 2012

New Angus Reid survey of BC politics

I have issues with how Angus Reid surveys are done but they have been in the field enough that I can see some track record and I can see some possible trends in this province because of it.

Keep in mind that Angus Reid uses an online panel which means there is no margin of error because statistically it is not a random sample of the public.   They select about 800 people from their pool of panel members to answer in each survey.   I do not know enough about how they screen who is in their panel pool and how they ensure they are not skewing away from the norm of the public of BC.

Party  Nov 22 Oct 10 Sep 11 Aug 1 Jul 5 May 9 Mar 30
NDP     47     49     46     49    45    50    43
Liberal 29     26     25     22    23    23    23
Cons    12     16     19     19    22    19    23
Green    9      7      8      9     8     6     8
Other    2      2      1      2     2     2     3

What patterns can I see from these seven surveys of political opinion in BC?

At best the BC Conservatives seem to be down from where they were earlier in 2012, but I thought the results Angus Reid achieved earlier in 2012 were out of sync with the reality of the results in the by-elections.   Early in 2012 there were two trends in BC public opinion research, one set had the Liberals and Conservatives almost tied and another set had Liberals at about twice the results of the Conservatives.

There seems there might be an upward trend for the BC Liberals with Angus Reid, but the latest results may just be Angus Reid's surveys coming closer to the results of other pollsters like Ipsos, Justason, and Mustel.

The shift between the results in October and the ones now is not really significant enough yet to read much into it.   If in a month the Conservatives and Liberals come lower and higher respectively than now, then there may be something going on.   I am not going say that the Conservative drop is the reason for the Liberal rise because I do not know how Angus Reid chooses their panel respondents.   It might be that right wing people are choosing not to answer the poll, I do not know.

What is clear to me from this is that the NDP retains a commanding lead over the Liberals and that this has not changed in the last nine months.   A gap between the two parties of more than ten percentage points on election day will mean a landslide NDP win.
Post a Comment