Monday, January 21, 2013

Latest Angus Reid poll - not good news for the Government of BC

The latest poll is out from Angus Reid the numbers continue to look good for the NDP and bad for the BC Liberals.  I am not thrilled with the polling that comes from Angus Reid, but in the last year they have been the most active pollster in BC and this gives more data points to see some potential trends

Date of Polling   Lib NDP Green Cons Other Libs+Cons
Jan 17–18 2013    31  46   10    10   3      41
Nov 21–22 2012    29  47    9    12   2      41
Oct 9–10 2012     26  49    7    16   2      42
Sep 10–11 2012    25  46    8    19   1      44
Jul 30 Aug 1 2012 22  49    9    19   2      41
Jul 3–5 2012      23  45    8    22   2      45
May 7–9 2012      23  50    6    19   2      42
Mar 29–30, 2012   23  43    8    23   3      46
Jan 27–29, 2012   28  42   10    19   1      47
Oct 31 Nov 1 2011 31  40    8    18   3      49

This latest poll does not show a statistically relevant change from November, yes, the rise of the Liberals seemingly at the expense of the BC Conservatives continues but the bigger trend I see is an overall drop in the right wing vote from the spring of 2012.  When we look back to the summer and fall of 2010 with Angus Reid,  the combined right wing vote was between 33% and 34%.   That was also the era of the highest BC Green support when they were at 14%.

Since May 2012 Angus Reid has had the NDP between 45% and 50%, the numbers seem to be consistent with no indication of NDP weakness.   The last time the NDP was weak was during the NDP leadership race and shortly there after.

I will have to wait for the next Angus Reid poll to see if there is any sense of a rising BC Liberal party or not, the improvement of a couple of points over the fall may not continue and they may have plateaued.

I really wish we had a few more companies polling in BC so that we could get more of a sense of what might be happening.


Mike Summers said...

It would be interesting to see a poll among voters who will not vote because there isn't ANY PARTY they like.
I'm there now.
I will have to think hard and long if I am going to sit this one out.
And I have NEVER done this in BC.

Bernard said...

There are some very serious systemic problems with how questions are asked by pollsters which leads to 85-90% of respondents expressing a choice. Meanwhile only 55-60% will vote - so what is going on here?

Angus Reid also uses an online panel which means the politically disgusted or unmotivated are unlikely to part of their sample

Anonymous said...

I think we're going to see the BC Conservatives resurgent very shortly.

Bernard said...

I am curious why you think the BC Conservatives will recover ground - I am not getting the sense that they are in touch with much of the mood of the public. I could be wrong, but I have trouble seeing them do better than BC Reform managed in 1996.