Thursday, March 21, 2013

New Angus Reid Survey for BC

Angus Reid was in the field again this week and released the results of their survey of their online panel members.

  • NDP           48% (+1)
  • Liberals      28% (-3)
  • Greens        11% (+1)
  • Conservatives 11% (+1)
  • Others         2% (-1)

This not a dramatic change from last month.   Though I do like the fact we have one company in the field on a consistent basis.  It means I can see some possible trends.  

I thought I would average the last three surveys they have done to see what we get as a result because generally the numbers have looked stable since January.    This would be a sample of 2414 people over 60 days.   I know that since I do not have the survey results down to the tenths that I am compounding the +- 0.5 rounding error from each of the numbers and means even though it is a larger sample, there is an added +- 1.5 percentage point margin of error in each of the results.

Party      Avg result 2009  change
NDP           47.0%   42.2%  (+4.8)
Liberals      30.0%   45.8% (-15.8)
Greens        10.3%    8.1%  (+2.2)
Conservatives 10.0%    2.1%  (+7.9)
Others         2.7%    1.7%  (+1.0)

Interesting though is the regional breakout from Vancouver Island averaged over the last three surveys - that should have included close to 400 people over those three samples.

Party     Avg result 2009  change
NDP          52.3%   50.5%  (+1.8)
Liberals     23.0%   38.4% (-15.4)
Greens       18.0%   10.1%  (+7.9)
Conservatives 6.0%    0.3%  (+5.7)
Others        1.0%    0.8%  (+0.2)

I find the Vancouver results interesting because there is a rise in the Greens into the sort of popularity level where could expect a party to have a reasonable chance of winning a seat.   Is the Green support concentrated enough in some locations to bring about a win?

I also find it interesting that the NDP gain on the island has been quick small.

Leader Approvals
Among leader approval ratings, Clark and Dix have about as many people approving of them as there is support for their party.  This has been roughly true for the two of them since September of last year.  Dix has a net positive approval rating of 8 points at the moment which is in the ballpark of where he has been for most of the last nine months.   Christy Clark has a net approval/disapproval of -38 points, close to the worst she has seen in the last nine months and 13 points worse than her numbers in January.

 John Cummins is rising in approval numbers so that he is now 7 points ahead of his party, his highest lead in the last nine months.    What he suffers from is a large portion of the population that disapproves of him.   He has had a net negative approval/disapproval on par with Christy Clark's.   This does not bode well for the Conservatives to grow their support.

The one that really stands out is Jane Sterk, she is consistently scoring 13-16 points ahead of the Green Party.   She has a net of just into the negative but has by far the largest portion of the public that have no opinion of her though this has dropped to its lowest level in the last nine months.   The much higher approval numbers for Jane Sterk does say to me that there is space for the Greens to grow their support.
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