Thursday, September 5, 2013

Two Nanos Federal Polls in August

Nanos released a poll on August 21st in relation to the telecoms industry but had within it federal horse race numbers and were in the field from August 12th to August 19th.   They then released a poll today that was completed on August 22nd about the federal scene.    I have no idea why they waited so long to release the data from the latest tracking poll.

I am assuming the two polls were done complete separately which means we can see if there is consistency in the results for Nanos over a short period.   Whatever methodology a pollster uses should produce consistent results but it is rare to have one pollster in the field again so quickly when there is no election on.

Poll              CPC   Libs  NDP  Greens Bloc Sample Size 
Aug 20th Telcom   31.9  35.3  22.8   5.9   2.5     1553
Aug 22nd Tracking 29.7  35.7  24.8   5.5   3.9      897

I do see a reasonable consistency in the numbers which gives me a higher degree of confidence in their numbers.   What I do not know is if these numbers reflect what the voting population would be at the ballot box.

The Nanos results are broadly consistent with the Forum results on August 23rd and July 23rd, but we have had a very thin data set this summer with most companies not being in the field with only EKOS releasing ann other data this summer.  I would like to have seen at least on poll from Leger, Abacus, Ipsos, Angus Reid and Environics.

What I take from the Nanos polls is that the federal Liberal party has not continued declining over the summer but is the most popular party in the country.   It is still two years till the next federal election, can the Trudeau Liberals maintain this lead?   Will the return of parliament impact the polls?  How will the four federal by-elections play out?   Will the Senate scandal have an impact?

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