Thursday, March 6, 2014

Why Quebec Solidaire might win 5 seats in the Quebec election

Normally political parties getting 6% in a first past the post election in Canada do not win any seats, but in 2012 Quebec solidaire managed to win two seats and come second in three more and just barely break 6% of the vote.   They did they through focusing their resources in a very limited geographical area.  For them this strategy has been working and could lead to them winning as many as five seats in this election.

QS elections results
                       % of vote in 
Elect votes   pct seats top 5 seats
2008 144,418 3.64%  0    17.78%
2008 122,618 3.78%  1    20.36%
2012 263,111 6.03%  2    19.55%

What you can see is that the support for QS has been very concentrated in just a few seats and this is not the norm in politics in Canada.  As a comparison, the percentage of the total votes for the four major parties in their top five seats from the 2012 Quebec election:

QS  19.55%
CAQ  9.20%
PL   9.16%
PQ   7.27%

The five seats of Gouin, Mercier, Sainte Marie-St Jacques, Laurier Dorion, and Hochelaga Maisonneuve are located as block    A number of the seats bordering these five are among the next best results for QS.

In an election it is important for voters to think you have a chance to win and for you to seriously campaign.  With QS being able to win two seats out of these five and with serious campaigns in all five seats it becomes realistic to think that QS can win several more of these seats.

What QS needs to win the seats
Laurier Dorion 3,143 votes, 9.75 percentage points - Liberal held
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 2,946 votes 10.33 percentage points - PQ held
 Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 6,053 votes 21.41 percentage points - PQ held

The task to win them will be difficult, but the track record for QS shows that for the first two they could be a threat to win.

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