Sunday, February 22, 2015

Regional results from latest EKOS poll

I find this chart from the latest EKOS poll interesting


Overall the regional results have been reasonably consistent over the four polls EKOS has conducted since the new year.   

Clearly Alberta and Saskatchewan will remain strong Conservative and Atlantic Canada Liberal.   Ontario is a serious battle ground.   Though what I find interesting is the four way tie in Quebec and the Liberal lead in BC.

I had not expected to see the four parties tied in Quebec.   The Liberals and Conservatives are at roughly the same levels of support they saw in 2008, the Bloc is in the range of their 2011 results.  The NDP are down from 2011, so what will this mean in Quebec?

Here in BC EKOS keeps having the Liberals in the lead but organizationally on the ground the party is not nearly as evident as their polling numbers would indicate.   I wonder if the Liberal support in BC is weak or are people parking their vote?  One reason I wonder if parking the vote is the case is because 5% of people in BC answered some other party.  Another reason I wonder is because I am not hearing an enthusiastic endorsement of Trudeau in BC.

In BC the support for the Green has been very stable at between 15% and 17% over the four polls.   this is higher than the Liberals achieved in 2011 and only marginally behind their 2008 vote.

 The sample size is in BC is between 400 to 450 so it is large enough to tell us something, I just do not know what it is telling us.

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