Thursday, May 12, 2016

Finally a fix for political junkies in BC - 2 new polls

Hi, my name is Bernard and I am a political junkie.   I get my fix from election days and polls.   As much as a I know these polls are not real proper data, it is all I have to go on.   It has been six months since I last had a BC poll hit.  

Here are the results from Ipsos and Insights West

Party   All of BC   Metro Van   Van Isle    Rest of BC
       Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit
Liberal 42    34    32    37    32    21    44    35
NDP     36    40    39    39    39    52    28    35
Green   10    14     6    13    25    22     9    13
Cons    11    10    10     9     4     5    18    18
Other    1     2     1     2     0     0     2     1

So what can we make of these numbers?    First, there is no clear leader, there is a race.   Second, the Greens have a measurable strength on Vancouver Island, high enough that more seats are a realistic target.  Third, the moribund BC Conservatives have reasonable strength in the interior and north.

The 10% or so support for the BC Conservatives says to me there is a desire by a part of the BC population for an actual right wing party.   This number is in my opinion people parking their support.    The party has no leader, no media presence and no obvious grass roots organization but it is polling at 10%.  

The NDP has good enough numbers that it could win the next election but the polls are not showing the sort of monster lead like in the run up to the 2013 election.    I have to wonder if it is seen as a race if more people will come out and vote for the NDP?


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