Monday, June 27, 2016

Nelson Creston - a possible battle ground riding in 2017

On the surface Nelson Creston looks like a safe NDP riding but that is not the whole picture.    This is an area where the Greens have a reasonable amount of support and could threaten to win the seat in 2017

In every election other than 2009 the Green support in Nelson Creston we much better than
overall provincial level of support for the party

In 1986 the NDP had lost the seat to Social Credit

Howard Dirks, the Socred MLA 1986-91 now ran as a Liberal and his support remained static from 1991
The 1996 result was by far the best results for any Green in Canada to date
Corky Evans lost but in relative terms he did not much better than most of the NDP in 2001
The Greens put a lot of energy into trying to get Collen McCrory elected

Best 2005 come back by a New Democrat

Greens put very little effort into the election

Greens managed to break 20% but spent a lot less money than the NDP or the Liberals
What happens in 2017 if they spend what they are allowed?

Current boundaries of the riding

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