Friday, June 24, 2016

BC Election 2017: Looking at the Okanagan Shuswap

I want to look at all the regions of the province over the next few months as a baseline of what is going on before the campaign really gets underway.

In this region four the the MLAs were elected in 2013 for the first time, two in 2009 and Christy Clark was elected in a by-election in Westside Kelowna in 2013.   Since 1996 the Liberals have won every seat in this region and I do not expect this to change in 2017.


Regional Results from 1991-2013
2013 Liberals 51.1% NDP 32.0% Cons     10.1% Greens  4.6%
2009 Liberals 42.4% NDP 31.9% Cons     11.9% Greens 11.9%
2005 Liberals 47.1% NDP 36.5% Greens    8.1% Cons    4.0%
2001 Liberals 63.1% NDP 15.1% Greens    9.8% UNity   8.2%
1996 Liberals 40.3% NDP 29.7% Reform   16.4% PDA    10.6%
1991 Socred   34.1% NDP 32.8% Liberals 31.8%
2009 and 2013 the Liberals won 7, 1996 to 2005 the Liberals won 6, 1991 NDP won 3, Socreds won 2 and Liberals 1

Riding Results for any candidate that got more than 10% of the vote
Boundary Similkameen - Linda Larson MLA elected in 2013 for the first time
2013 Liberals 46.6% NDP    39.0%
2013 Liberals 46.0% NDP    39.4% redist to 2017 boundaries
2009 Liberals 37.5% NDP    32.9% Cons     20.2%
1996 Liberals 38.9% NDP    38.2% Reform   15.4%
1991 NDP      48.8% Socred 25.8% Liberals 25.0%
2001 and 2005 riding did not exist

Penticton - Dan Ashton MLA elected in 2013 for the first time
2013 Liberals 45.4% NDP      40.3%
2009 Liberals 44.0% NDP      31.2% Greens 15.7%
As Penticton Okanagan Valley
2005 Liberals 50.2% NDP      37.5%
2001 Liberals 67.2% NDP      15.6% Greens 14.2%
as Okanagan Penticton
1996 Liberals 42.8% NDP      37.0% Reform 12.0%
1991 NDP      34.8% Liberals 32.9% Socred 30.5%

Kelowna West (formerly Westside Kelowna) - Christy Clark MLA - elected in a 2013 by -election
2013 by Liberals 62.7% NDP 29.7%
2013    Liberals 58.1% NDP 30.8% Cons 11.1%
2009    Liberals 53.3% NDP 29.2%
As Okanagan Westside
2005    Liberals 54.4% NDP 30.8% Green 10.1%
2001    Liberals 68.1% NDP 15.2%
before 2001 there was no riding like this

Kelowna Mission - Steve Thomson MLA first elected in 2009
2013 Liberals 56.9% NDP 25.8% Cons  12.7%
2009 Liberals 53.9% NDP 26.1% Cons  11.9%
2005 Liberals 53.7% NDP 31.8% Green 12.9%
2001 Liberals 64.6% NDP 12.9% Green 10.9%
There was no comparable riding before 2001

Kelowna Lake Country - Norm Letnik MLA first elected in 2009
2013 Liberals 56.8% NDP 24.8% Cons  11.0%
2009 Liberals 52.1% NDP 26.6% Cons  11.4%
2005 Liberals 50.4% NDP 30.4% Green 10.5%
2001 Liberals 63.2% NDP 13.9% Green 11.7%
no equivalent riding existed before 2001

Vernon Monashee - Eric Foster MLA first elected in 2013
2013 Liberals 46.3% NDP 34.2% Cons     11.7%
2009 Liberals 37.3% NDP 31.8% Green    16.7%
2005 Liberals 43.2% NDP 33.6% Cons     11.6%
2001 Liberals 56.5% NDP 14.4% Unity    13.1%
1996 Liberals 39.1% NDP 30.0% Reform   21.4%
1991 Scored   38.0% NDP 34.0% Liberals 26.7%

Shuswap - Greg Kyllo MLA first elected in 2013
2013 Liberals 47.9% NDP      29.6% Cons   12.9%
2009 Liberals 46.6% NDP      30.5% Green  11.0% Cons  10.3%
2005 Liberals 47.0% NDP      35.3%
2001 Liberals 56.3% NDP      16.5% Unity  12.4% Green 10.5%
1996 Liberals 34.6% NDP      31.4% Reform 22.6%
1991 NDP      35.5% Liberals 33.6% Socred 28.9%

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