Monday, February 2, 2009

The Lay of the Land for the May 2009 Election

There are 85 seats up for grabs this time. The Liberals are sitting on 32 safe seats, the NDP are sitting on 17. There are a total of about 34 ridings potentially in play, though many of them are very long odds. Realistically 21 seats have the potential of changing hands in the election, about 1/4 of the ridings.

For most of us there will be no urgency to vote for an MLA because we are not in an area where there will be much competition. In my case I know that on May 13th Rob Flemming will continue to be my MLA.

At this point we can be certain of 42 Liberals and 21 New Democrats being elected. This means Giordon Campbell has won a third term already, the election is simply about how big a majority.

Of the 22 battleground ridings, 12 are held by the NDP and 10 by the Liberals.

Here are the battleground ridings:
  1. Burnaby Deer Lake
  2. Burnaby Edmonds
  3. Burnaby Lougheed
  4. Burnaby North
  5. Cariboo Chilcotin
  6. Cariboo North
  7. Comox Valley
  8. Coquitlam Millardville
  9. Delta North
  10. Delta South - between Liberals and Vicki Huntingdon
  11. Kootenay East
  12. Maple Ridge Mission
  13. Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
  14. North Island
  15. North Vancouver Lonsdale
  16. Oak Bay Gordon Head
  17. Port Coquitlam
  18. Saanich South
  19. Skeena
  20. Surrey Fleetwood
  21. Vancouver False Creek
  22. Vancouver Fairview
There is a potential that Vicki Huntingdon will win in Delta South.

There is also a long shot chance of Jane Sterk, leader of the Green Party of BC, defeating Maurine Karagianis in Esquimalt Royal Roads.

At the end of the day I see the following result in the election

  • Liberals 59 +13
  • NDP 25 -8
  • Ind 1 +1

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