Monday, April 25, 2011

Election Prediction Roundup with One Week to go

Latest round of seat projections for the election. they are sorted from most NDP seats to fewest.

Site                   Cons Libs NDP Bloc Ind
Mace                    131  73   81  22   1
Riding by Riding        148  65   56  38   1 
Lispop                  149  68   52  36
Canadian Election Watch 154  66   51  36   1
Election Almanac        148  76   48  36
Canadian Election Watch 154  69   47  37   1 
Too Close to Call       145  74   47  42
Canadian Election Watch 154  70   44  39   1 
DemocraticSpace         157  69   39  42   1   151  75   36  45   1
Median               148/9 69/73 48/51 37/8 1
Average               147.9 70.8 51.3 37.3 0.6

(Altered from earlier in the day because of new prediction from Canadian Election Watch, twice now!)
Compared to the last prediction round up I did, the numbers are no longer nearly as consistent as it they were earlier.  That round up was already less consistent between the predictions than earlier in the election

The big change is of course with the NDP and by extension the Bloc because of the NDP surge in Quebec.  Eight days ago the predictions had the NDP with 31 to 38 seats and the Bloc with 38 to 50 seats.  Generally the trend is that the NDP will finish with more seats than the Bloc.  

The gap between the NDP and Liberals in seats has also tightened a lot.   The gap is just over 20 seats now.  

As to my own numbers, I am working hard to get a prediction I can be comfortable with for election day.


Skoblin said...

You may wish to wait until tomorrow with your prediction. Environics has the NDP at 41 in Quebec and ahead of the Liberals nationally by three points.

Election Watcher said...

I've just updated my projection with tidbits from two polls. 154/69/47/37/1. There will probably be one more update tonight as EKOS is planning to release some numbers.

Bernard said...

Election Watcher, I will update your numbers on the chart.

As to more polling numbers, the only two I am interested in - trend in Ontario and trend in BC.

Quebec, no one on this planet will be able to accurately predict the seats in this election. All we know is that a lot more seats in flux than expected.

Election Watcher said...

Thanks. New EKOS poll with 33.7% Conservative and 28% NDP...

Election Watcher said...

Further update including EKOS: 154-66-51-36-1

Atlanta Roofing said...

But I thought on Debate night how amazing Layton was and I sensed a certain je ne sais quoi about him. He seemed vibrant and strong and sharp. I thought then maybe there was going to be "something" big about him. He's my pick for winner of the election. Even if he only gets Opposition, he's still the winner. Even if he only grabs a few more seats in Quebec, he's a winner. I've been amazed by him this campaign.