Friday, April 15, 2011

Round of Seat Projections for the Election

Here is the list of seat predictions I know of:

  • Site                      Cons    Libs    BQ   NDP  Oth
  • Canadian Election Watch    150     79     48    31
  • Riding by Riding           143     82     48    34   1**
  • Too Close To Call          146     78     47    37
  • Lispop                     151     75     48    34
  • Election Almanac           136     94     38    38
  • threehundredeight          152     73     50    33
  • Democratic Space*          152     78     43    34   1**
  • BC Iconoclast (me)         148     81     45    33   1**
  • Ekos Seat Projecttion      131     93     45    38   1**
  • median                     148     79     47    34
  • average                    145.4   81.4   45.8  34.7
* Greg at Democratic Space has a range of probable results, the numbers are the mid range on his page
** Andre Arthur in Quebec

There have been some significant changes in the numbers.  I only did the round up of the projections two days ago.   So what has changed?

First off, the range of results is much wider than it was a couple of days ago.  We had an 8 seat variation in the Conservatives, now it is 21 seats.   For the Liberals it has gone from 14 to 21, the Bloc 7 to 12, and the NDP remained at a 7 seat variation.

Overall, the Conservatives and Bloc are down and the Liberals and NDP are up.  

Election Alamanc has the Bloc dropping to 38 seats and Liberals at 94.   Ekos has the Conservatives at 131 seats and Liberals at 93.  These predictions are an indication of how much of a shift there has been in the thinking of some people.

Too Close to Call and DemocraticSpace do not have new projections since Wednesday.
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