Thursday, May 9, 2013

Advance Poll Day 1 Trends

Overall the advance vote for day 1 was up from 2.83% of the registered voters in 2009 to 3.43% in 2013.   This is part of a trend over the last four elections where more and more people vote early, the increase is smaller than I had expected and may indicate a lower overall turn out in the election.

In nine ridings the turnout was more than 5% of registered voters, in 2009 only one riding broke the 5% mark.   Nine of the ten are currently held by the BC Liberals

Riding                     % voted Change from 2009
Parksville Qualicum           5.93% (+0.85)
Saanich North and the Islands 5.62% (+1.32)
Boundary Similkameen          5.61% (+0.98)
Comox Valley                  5.40% (+0.56)
Kootenay East                 5.25% (+0.67)
Oak Bay Gordon Head           5.16% (+1.33)
Penticton                     5.09% (+1.11)
Vancouver West End            5.04% (+1.57)
Vernon Monashee               5.00% (+1.58)

All of them but Vancouver West End and Boundary Similkameen are seats with serious races going on.  Does this mean that the parties are getting their vote out?   Two of them on the list are seats the Greens are hoping to win.  Vernon Monashee is a seat the BC Conservatives are putting their hopes into.

Six  ridings had a turnout of less than 2% 
Riding            % voted  Change from 2009
Richmond East        1.22% (-0.13)
Richmond Steveston   1.73% (-0.01)
Surrey Green Timbers 1.79% (+0.26)
Vancouver Kensington 1.81% (+0.38)
Vancouver Hastings   1.92% (+0.38)
Surrey Whalley       1.97% (+0.34)

Overall only 11 ridings saw a drop in voter turn out when compared to 2009, the worst drop was in Stikine with a drop of 0.97 from 2009.

Some other ridings with big increases
Vancouver Mount Pleasant - up 1.93
Chilliwack Hope - up 1.68
Abbotsford South - up 1.47
Victoria Beacon Hill - up 1.39

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