Saturday, October 20, 2007

Can the Green Party win in any ridings federally?

This is an interesting question to look at when the party is polling in the 8 to 10% range.

Here are the ridings I believe they have a chance in:

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca:

This has been a three way race for several elections now. A strong Green here could win with as little as 30% of the vote. I believe that this riding could be won if Jane Sterk were to run for the Greens and have a good campaign team. I believe this is the top riding for the Greens in Canada for a win.

Central Nova

Elizabeth May is being taken seriously by the media. She also did well in the London North by-election. The riding is also one that is not as strongly Conservative as one would expect.

There is no Liberal here and a tacit endorsement of May by the Liberals.

The Conservatives are also taking a lot of heat in Atlantic Canada.

Ottawa Centre

This riding has had a stronger Green result and is not just an NDP - Liberal race, the Conservatives do exist here to split the vote several ways. In a four way race, one can win with a vote less than 30% of the vote. Long shot here.

All Three London Ridings:

The races are split between the major parties and Elizabeth May placed second in the London North Centre by - election. A strong London region campaign with good candidates gives the Greens some chance for a good result here.


Existing three way and a decent result from the Greens in 2006. If the Liberals lose votes here, the Greens could pick them up. They could also gain NDP vote if the NDP is seen as pointless.


This riding is unlikely to be lost by the NDP, but it is one that is winnable by the Greens because it is a three way race at the moment and the Greens have team of people ready to campaign. Once Denise Savoie is gone, this riding is very winnable by the Greens.

Saanich and the Gulf Islands:

Not much chance of the Greens winning this riding. Gary Lunn is not likely to lose this riding. Even though his percentage of the vote has been low in the last two elections, he still won by more than 10% points in the last election. The Liberals and the NDP are not strong enough to make a race of this riding. The Liberals have had this one on their radar in each election since 1993 and at best got less than 1/3 of the vote.

With falling Liberal fortunes in Canada and rising Conservative polling numbers, this is not a riding that the government will lose.

For a Green to win here, they would have to get 40%+ of the vote, an unrealistic task.

Bruce Grey Owen Sound

The Ontario Greens just scored 33% here in the provincial election placing a strong second. In the last federal election this was the best Green result in Canada. But, this is a Conservative riding by nature, the poster child for why PC and Reform/Alliance voting splitting helped the Liberals. For the Greens to win here they would have to get close to 50% of the vote. No chance of this.


This is a three way race at the moment. A strong Green here could make it a four way race and win with a low percentage. Still a long shot.

Hamilton East Stoney Creek

Once again a riding with a a chance to make it a four way race


Another existing three way


No chance of any wins here, but a strong chance of placing second in many ridings. If I were to choose an Alberta riding for the Greens, I would look at Calgary Centre

1 comment:

Shunmeister said...

Your view on Saanich-Gulf Island is correct and that is why the Shun Lunn campaign has begun.

Time for a change.