Saturday, October 20, 2007

What might a federal election outcome look like?

Looking at the polls of late and how things are going, I suspect that a federal election result would look as follows:

  • Conservatives 155
  • Liberals 90
  • Bloc 47
  • NDP 16
The Conservatives would see gains in BC, the prairies and Ontario. The Liberals would see modest gains in the Atlantic and Quebec. The NDP just losses seats.

The NDP suffers from having won 9 seats with less than 40% of the vote and having the number 2 party within 10% of them in 12 seats. They have a lot more seats that are marginal. This really comes through with their seats in Ontario.

The actual election campaign is also going to make some major differences to the results.

Having seen the leaders in action, Harper is very good at being able to run a campaign. Dion is weak, very weak. Layton tries so hard but always seems slightly fake. And finally the BQ - will this party begin to go the way of the Creditistes and become a decreasing rump?

What I would see happening in an election going east to west:

Atlantic Canada:
I believe the NDP will be able to hold their three seats. The Conservatives have a problem in the region but have an advantage because they do not have that many seats that they could lose. I see the Conservatives holding 5 seats. This will leave the Liberals with 24 seats.

Quebec:
What will federalists do? I believe that the ADQ - Union Nationale - Creditiste type of bleu vote will solidify with the Conservatives. The Liberals will be reduce to urban Montreal and facing the NDP as their main opposition there. I see the BQ losing seats. I see Arthur Andre losing to the Bleu vote for the Conservatives

CPC - 20
Liberals - 13
NDP - 1
BQ - 41

Ontario:
This will be an interesting location to see how they go. The latest provincial election does not bode well for the Conservatives, but McGiunty is not Dion and Harper is not Tory.

I see the NDP being squeezed in Ontario as the Liberals pull them in. The NDP does not have the long term incumbency in many of the ridings they won in 2006. I see them holding 5 ridings.

At the same time the fear of Harper is reduced. I think he can gain a lot of 905 and rural Ontario. I see the election creating a ground swell for Harper and against the Liberal pandering to the have not provinces. I see the Conservatives taking 65 seats.

This leaves the Liberals with 37 in Ontario, their worst result since 1984.

Manitoba:
I believe the Conservatives will gain votes here but not a lot of seats, only two from the Liberals for a total of 10. NDP should be able to hold their three.

Saskatchewan:
No space for the Conservatives to grow here. There are two Liberal seats that could go to the Conservatives. 13 and Ralph Goodale

Alberta:
Remains 28 for Harper

BC:
This will be an interesting province. The polls have been showing a rising support for the Conservatives and dead heat for the Liberals and NDP. The right had its worst result for seats in 2006 since 1988. The Conservatives had a higher vote in 2006 than 2004 but lost seats. The Conservatives have a lot more safe seats in BC.

The NDP has a reasonably firm grip on a number of their seats, but one only need look at 1993 to see how wins turn into losses.

The Liberals have more weak wins than the other parties and will have to work hard to defend their gains.

I see the Conservatives taking 25 seats, the NDP 7 and the Liberals 4.

The North:
I see the Conservatives winning Nunavut and the other two remaining the same as before, so one riding each


National Result:
  • Conservatives 164
  • Liberals 81
  • Bloc 41
  • NDP 20
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