Thursday, February 14, 2013

EKOS BC poll - some data on federal preferences

One thing that is really hard to understand in BC politics is how public opinion on the federal level relates to public opinion on the provincial level.  EKOS asked that question and here are the results:

FED VOTE BCNDP BCLibs BCCP  Greens Others #resp  +- 
CPC      14.6% 44.5%  36.5%  2.2%   2.2%   175   7.4
NDP      84.5%  4.3%   2.7%  7.0%   1.6%   152   8.0
LPC      27.8% 58.4%   4.1%  7.0%   2.7%    98   9.9
Green    25.5%  4.6%   4.0% 64.0%   1.9%    66  12.1
Other    24.9%  0.0%  12.9% 18.9%  43.3%    15  25.3

It is interesting that federal Conservatives split fairly evenly is this poll between the BC Liberals and BC Conservatives, but note that one in seven federal Conservative supporters supports the NDP provincially.  

To freak your mind a bit, this would imply that about 11% of the people that said they support Adrian Dix and the BC NDP also support Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

Federal Liberals split roughly 2 to 1 for the BC Liberals over the BC NDP.   This is really a core question people have had in BC politics - how do federal Liberals act provincially?  I have always suspect that they tended to be much more on the BC Liberal side than the BC NDP side.

One interesting thing to note is that BC NDP gains from the federal Conservatives and federal Liberals works out to being almost the same number of respondents in the poll.

The numbers above do imply a level of support for each federal party.   Those numbers are:

CPC    34.6%
NDP    30.0%
LPC    19.4%
Greens 13.0%
Others  3.0%
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