Seat projections for August 27 2008

Ipsos and Harris Decima have some recent polling numbers to work with. They basically seem to cancel each other out leaving us with a new result of

• Conservatives 139
• Liberals 109
• Bloc 41
• NDP 19
• Ind 1

Harper remains 16 seats short of a majority.

The biggest changes are in Quebec where the BQ numbers are not looking good. At the moment it is a toss up who will gain the most seats but the model gives more to the Liberals than the Conservatives. As long as the Liberals and Conservatives are close, the BQ can win a lot of tight races.

In BC, the numbers for the NDP do not look good and there is no indication that the Liberals have any strength outside of the most urban parts of BC. At the moment the model only reduces the NDP to five seats from BC, but this could fall further if there is any consistency in the bad polling numbers for them.

The model will use data from the UBC ESM once it is up and running.