Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The Election in Atlantic Canada

I have assumed that the Conservatives would do badly in Atlantic Canada because of their petulant angry over wanting to be on federal welfare while having enough revenues that they no longer need it. We really need to drastically change the federal equalization system and make provinces less dependent on Ottawa - but that is something for another time.

What interests me is that polling numbers coming out of Atlantic Canada. The samples are all small and there is a lot of movement all over the place, but I can see is that the Conservatives are at the same level they were at in 2006 or slightly better. The Liberals look to be down slightly and the NDP numbers are all over the place.

IF one assumes that the Conservatives are doing badly in Newfoundland, then their support has to be in the other three provinces. This means their numbers are high enough to take seats from the Liberals in Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick.

Dion is in huge trouble if he has to defend seats in Atlantic Canada, the party's only strong hold other than the GTA.
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