Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Poll Out for BC Only

The Mustel Group took a poll of people in BC and their federal voting intentions. They surveyed 750 people from September 2nd to 8th. The poll was released today - why this long after the survey, I have no idea.

  • Conservatives - 39%
  • NDP - 25%
  • Liberals - 24%
  • Greens - 12%
+- 3.6%

18% undecided, which means there are people that answered with a party that are not going to vote in the election.

This poll gives us a strong measure of BC overall at the start of the election, much better than most of the break outs of the national polls where the BC sample is only 100 to 150 people. Only Ekos gives us any results that comparable. Their tracking poll is getting about 455 BC voters. Actually, their September 11th poll had 1152 respondents in BC out of 4367 nationwide - I had not noticed this high spike in BC numbers. I need to account for this in my other polling analysis as this makes the poll more like a 3600 nationwide poll and not a 5000 as I had assumed.

Working with the Mustel numbers, discounted because they are getting stale, the recent Ekos numbers at full value and discounting their earlier, and other poll samples very much discounted because they are so small, the current level of support in BC of the political parties is:

  • Conservatives - 39%
  • NDP - 25%
  • Liberals - 22%
  • Greens - 14%

In seats this would indicate the following

  • Conservatives - 26
  • Liberals - 2 Vancouver Centre and Vancouver South
  • NDP - 8
The only wildcard I see in this is Blair Wilson in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country as a possible elected Green.
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