Monday, September 15, 2008

More on polls

I wonder why the Nanos numbers in the polls show the Liberals in the range of 30% - since the start of September they are the only company that has the Liberals at 30% or more. If one takes their numbers out, things look worse for the Liberals than most people are saying. Nanos seems to be about 3-4 percentage points than the others for the Liberals. Nanos looks like they have a systemic error in favour of the Liberals. Because of this seemingly systemic error, I will be reducing the weight I give Nanos polls by 30%.

Then there is Harris/Decima - their numbers look high for the Conservatives. They have had the Conservatives at over 40% twice. Only Segma's September 6th poll has the Conservatives at over 40%. Harris/Decima does not seem to have an ongoing systemic error in favour of the Conservatives, but at the same time their numbers have been more erratic. I will be assigning a 20% reduction in weight to their polls.

Now companies that crop up with polls, such as Segma, will be assigned a 50% reduction in weight until they have a track record.

To date the Ekos polling seems to be most consistent. They also have the largest polls and the only ones with decent regional break out numbers.

Using the latest Ekos numbers for BC, 38 CPC, 27 NDP, 20 Liberal and 14 Green, means that the Liberals will be reduced to one or two seats in BC. Vancouver South is their only seat they can count on and they may be able to hold onto Vancouver Centre.

The NDP has a decent chance to pick up Vancouver Kingsway and Esquimalt Juan de Fuca. The NDP may finally be able to pick off Vancouver Centre for the first time after putting in more than a generation of effort into the attempt.

The Greens are not out of the running in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky Country. The party is running at 14% and has some benefit from Blair Wilson in the riding. Should the Greens maintain 14% at the polls, they will come third in some of the ridings in BC and push the Liberals into fourth.

The Conservatives should see an increase of five seats from BC.
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