Thursday, September 18, 2008

National Polling Numbers

Looking at the three national daily tracking polls, Nanos, Harris/Decima and Ekos, gives us a running total of 6400 respondents, a decent sized national poll. Weighting the three companies based on their poll sizes gives us the following national results:

Conservatives - 38%
Liberals - 26%
NDP - 18%
Greens - 10%
Bloc - 8%

Harper is consistently staying in the 38% of the vote for the last week or so. He is in the range of a good majority because the second place party is so far behind him.

The Liberals are continuing to trend downwards, they are now at 85% the level of support they had in 2006.

The NDP is potentially marginally ahead of where they were in 2006, but this masks weakness in traditional areas such as BC because of the dramatic increase in support in Quebec. The NDP may increase their vote and not gain any seats.

Greens are not really a potential to win seats, yet. There has to be a stronger concentration of their votes for them to begin to win seats. The region in which they are strongest is BC, but they are still running fourth. The party is with in range of passing the NDP and Liberals if their fortunes go well. I would expect them to be able to pass the Liberals and not the NDP.

Based on the current polling numbers:
  • Conservatives - 167 seats
  • Liberals - 65
  • NDP - 36
  • Bloc - 38
  • Ind - 2

Seat Projection Based on How I expect the Election to End:
  • Conservatives - 206
  • NDP - 39
  • Bloc - 34
  • Liberals - 26
  • Ind - 2
  • Green - 1
Using the latest numbers from the UBC Election Stockmarket you get:
  • Conservatives - 144.5
  • Liberals - 84.7
  • NDP - 40.4
  • Bloc - 32
  • Others - 4.6
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