Thursday, September 18, 2008

Detailed Seat Projection

Using all the best data I can find at the moment I am putting out a better projection of where the current data says we are at in this election today. I still think the trend will be one of the Liberals losing even more seats by October 14th.

Party

BC

AB

SK

MN

ON

QC

NB

NS

PEI

NFLD

Nth

TOTAL

CPC

26

28

12

10

63

23

6

4

1

1

1

175

LPC

2



1

25

12

4

3

3

5

1

56

NDP

8


2

3

18

1

1

2


1

1

37

Bloc






38






38

Ind






1


1




2

GP








1




1



I am becoming convinced the Elizabeth May will beat Peter Mackay in Central Nova.

Ontario is where the Liberals are in real trouble, their sinking vote is making many more ridings very vulnerable. Taking the regional results and weighting them for poll size, the Liberals are a long way down in Ontario. Having Toronto mayor David Miller coming out for the Greens and Liberal Ontario premier Mcginty sitting on the side lines is killing them.

Pundits are very conservative by nature, they assume what happened last time and the time before will happen again. The will argue against a change because it has not happened. They were very wrong in 1984 and 1993 in what would happen in the election. Almost no one predicted the NDP would do as well as they did in 1988.

This election is one in which we very likely could see the federal Liberal party reduced to a smaller rump than ever before, but few pundits are willing to say this because they do not want to break from the pack and make a prediction that is dramatically different than the other pundits. They honestly can not believe that a Dion meltdown is already underway.

In from April 1999 to the May 2001 election in BC, people could not believe my prediction that the NDP was in danger of being reduced to almost no seats. People looked back at past elections and assumed that something similar would happen.

If the federal Liberal party wants to make it through this election in second, they need to move all their resources into their 50 safest ridings and fight like hell there. They have to defend their core territory now or they will lose a lot of their safest ridings.

In Canada the federal Liberal party has seen the provincial wings leave the fold over the last years. In BC the and Quebec the provincial parties are no longer formally affliated with the federal party. In Ontario the affliation is loose. In Saskatchewan the party has been reduced to fringe status. I can see more provincial wings ending the formal connection the federal party.
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