Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Poll of Polls

Taking the last five polls and averaging them, we get the following result:

  • Conservatives - 38.2
  • Liberals - 26.8
  • NDP - 17.0
  • Greens - 8.4
  • Bloc - 7.8

This is just a rough and dirty snapshot of the moment, but certainly indicates that already this election is not going to be the same as the last one. The Liberal party is running over 3 percentage points behind 2006 and lower than their worst result in 1984 when the party polled 28.02% of the vote and was reduced to 40 seats.

The other difference is with the Bloc. The Bloc is running about 2.5 percentage points below their worst results in the past and about 5 percentage points below their good results.

This election will have a dramatically different parliament come out of than last time. We should see about 110 to 140 new MPs elected this time. That is more than a 1/3 change in the house.
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