Friday, September 5, 2008

Sept 5 2008 Election Seat Prediction

With some recent polls coming in showing there is about an 8 point gap between the Conservatives and Liberals and with the continued low numbers of the BQ in Quebec, time for a new seat update

  • --------------CPC--- LP--- NDP--- BQ ----IND
  • National --148 ----98 -----23 ------38 -----1
  • Atlantic -------8 ----22 ------2
  • Quebec ----20 ----15 -------1 ------38 -----1
  • Ontario -----48 ----50 -------8
  • Man/Sask -20 ------3 -------5
  • Alberta -----27 ------1 -------0
  • BC ----------25 ------5 -------6
  • North ---------0 ------2 -------1
Comments on this projection:

  1. A Conservative shut out in Newfoundland is possible
  2. Bill Casey is not likely to win at this time, though my projection could change
  3. At the moment the Bloc gains from the federalist split, but if things change like in 1984, there could be a large number of seats going to the Conservatives in Quebec. Though I believe the NDP will hold their one seat in Quebec this time.
  4. The NDP is going to be squeezed in Ontario
  5. The NDP will gain in Sask and Man this time at the expense of the Liberals
  6. Yes, I do believe the Liberals will be able to take one of the Edmonton ridings
  7. The north could change to a much stronger Conservative vote, but much depends on the candidates, Harper has made the north more of a priority than any other PM in a generation or more.
While we do not know where the election is headed, there is a moderately reasonable chance of a Conservative majority government.
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