Monday, December 1, 2008

Liberal Leadership Race - How Will They Campaign?

Lib/NDP coalition can be certain of 162 votes versus 143 to 145 for the Conservatives. What happens when three Liberal MPs want to hit the road to campaign? The loss of three government MPs makes the margin 159 to 145. What about sitting MPs supporting leadership candidates?

The dynamics of Liberal leadership race reduces the effective governing coalition enough to put Dion in danger of losing votes depending on who is there.

Harper needed only one whip to make sure the numbers were there. Dion will have to rely on the whips of two other parties to make sure the votes are in the house. Stephane Dion will be utterly dependent on one man to make sure the numbers are there, Michel Guimond, the Bloc whip.

Depending on the Bloc to be in Ottawa and to keep Mr Clarity Act in power strikes me as hubris. It really comes down to the Bloc making sure they have at least forty four MPs in the house voting for the government to keep Dion in power.

Imagine being a separatist and going back home and telling people you are supporting the author of the clarity act?
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