Saturday, May 9, 2009

Ipsos Poll - Lib 47, NDP 39, Green 10

I can not find the details yet, this was an 800 person poll and reported in the Vancouver Sun.

Biggest change from the poll on March 24th is the dramatic drop in Green support and the shift of that support to the NDP.

  • Liberals - 47%(+1)
  • NDP - 39%(+4)
  • Greens - 10%(-4)
  • Others - 4(-1)
There is another poll out this morning in the Globe and Mail. This is from Innovative Research.

  • Liberals - 46%
  • NDP - 37%
  • Greens - 11%
  • Others - 6%
They apparently had a poll out last week as well where the only differences were that NDP at 39% and the Greens at 9%. Here is what was in the Globe about that.
The Innovative Research Group poll is an online survey of 753 panelists conducted from March 20 to April 15, with a second major survey of 610 panelists conducted from May 6 to May 9. A random sample of 600 with a 100 per cent response rate would have a margin of error of four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Factoring in both polls brings me to:

  • Liberals - 46.4%(+1.2)
  • NDP - 38.8%(-0.6)
  • Green - 10.8(-0.9)
  • Others - 4.3(+0.4)

I am feeling reasonably confident that these numbers will be an accurate reflection of the public will at the ballot box. As to the seats that the parties would win, I stand behind my prediction of the other day - 57 Liberal and 28 NDP


Anonymous said...

One interesting finding from the Ipsos poll. It asked a question on "likely voters" and 66% stated that they were "absolutely certain" to vote.

Turnout in my guestimation will probably also be in the 63% - 65% range based upon historic figures.

And the 8% lead for the Libs increases to 11% with these "absolutely certain" voters:

Liberal - 49%
NDP - 38%
Green - 11%

Anonymous said...

I think you are somewhat optimistic. Liberals will probably win, but it will be a very narrow victory affecting their mandate.

There is also a chance that NDP could come on top due to the systemic bias favoring the NDP.

The spread may be is little as 3% and the seat spread as little as 5 or 3 seats.