Monday, December 1, 2008

Unbelievable, but the coalition may happen

Latest news says that Dion will lead a coalition of the NDP and the Liberals and the Bloc will agree not to bring the government down for a year.

I am amazed that the Bloc would support a government lead by the architect of the Clarity Act. Are they really that beholden to the taxpayer funding that they will do anything to keep it? Another important question to ask is if all the Bloc MPs will be onside. If only a few chose to abstain or to vote against the government, the coalition falls.

A Liberal/NDP government would be 41 seats short of a majority. The Bloc only has 49 MPs. The two independents have shown themselves to be closer to the Conservatives than any other party, but even if they both support the government, the Lib/NDP still need 39 more votes. If ten Bloc MPs break ranks the coalition will fall. If the indepedents vote against the Lib/NDP coalition, it would only take eight Bloc MPs breaking rank.

A Lib/NDP government also has a problem with the loss of MPs through resignations and death. The Liberals have an old caucus with many MPs that have served for numerous terms. The lose of even a few of them puts their ablity to ensure a vote in favour into question.

I have no doubt that the 37 NDP MPs will remain loyal no matter how much they dislike the Liberals, especially here in BC, but I wonder about the Liberals. The Liberals have seen that Stephen Harper has been governing very much in line with the Paul Martinite faction of the party. Might not some of the Martin freindly MPs consider crossing to the Conservatives?

What will the Lib/NDP government have to offer to the Bloc for their support? I am really curious about that.

Will the NDP demand electoral reform even though the Bloc and Liberals are opposed?

With such a narrow margin for governance, the Lib/NDP MPs will be utterly Ottawa bound for fear of losing a vote.

Can a Lib/NDP coalition actually govern well or will they flounder badly? There is a danger of an election next fall and I think that timing would be bad for any government.
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