Canada needs open access to the US markets. Traditionally the democrats have been against an open market and certainly have always taken a strong measures against business in Canada when it succeeds in the American market. Hillary Clinton would have been a better Democrat for Canada simply because her husband is not an economic moron and understands that the US needs an open market relationship with Canada.
Barak Obama meanwhile has made negative comments about free trade - that alone should ring alarm bells in Canada. I can understand why federally the conversation with the government by one of his campaign senior people was made public, Canada can not afford a year of a campaign where it looks like its main market may close. I presume that Barak Obama is not dumb enough to do any protectionist stuff beyond the petty political requirements of the status quo.
I find it odd that there were people in Canada, supporters of Obama, that were upset when it came out that Barak Obama was not opposed to free trade and would not be seeking the economic death of Canada. I can only assume that these people think Canada is defacto already part of the US and that they wanted their liberal choice for president to win.
The only man that was running for president in the US that is supportive of a better trading relationship between Canada and the US - the single biggest trading relationship in the world - is John McCain. McCain is smart enough to know free trade has done more to end poverty hunger globally than all the government programs of all time. He also knows that more free trade will raise the standard of living of the poorest Americans and make more Mexicans middle class and reduce illegal immigration.
As Canadians, internal issues in the US are not important to us directly. The thing that matters to us is how difficult it is to move people, money and goods across the border.
The last seven years of George Bush have seen the most reckless and badly run government the US has seen in history. Bush has effectively destroyed the US dollar and made Americans poorer faster than anytime since the great depression.
Canada needs a reasonable long term stability in the exchange rate between the two countries. For three decades Canadians were at fault for devaluing our dollar to avoid investing in industry and better infrastructure. We deserved a low dollar because we refused to become more productive. But in the last seven years it has all been the US - one economically illiterate man in the Whitehouse is hamstringing the world's biggest economy.
Bush was foolhardy when he chose to invade Iraq - there was no pressing need for it, the Iraqis could have survived another decade under the brutal and horrific torture that was Saddam Hussein. He was right to go into Afghanistan, but he should have made sure that the country was stable before embarking on another adventure.
In hindsight his father looks brilliant for not going further than liberating Kuwait.
No matter who wins in November, the US is going to in Iraq for at least another decade or two.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Time for the UBC Election Stock Market to Start
This is an email I sent today to Werner Antweiler at Saunder School of Business at UBC
-------------------------------------
Hi there Werner
How do I convince you to run an ESM ASAP for both the federal and provincial elections?
I would love to have one.
If you say yes, I will promote the heck out of it and get people to put money in.
Or, how about if I can find 100 people willing to commit investing at least $500 each on
day one, would you open? Or what number would you need to consider opening?
yours
Bernard von Schulmann
-------------------------------------
Hi there Werner
How do I convince you to run an ESM ASAP for both the federal and provincial elections?
I would love to have one.
If you say yes, I will promote the heck out of it and get people to put money in.
Or, how about if I can find 100 people willing to commit investing at least $500 each on
day one, would you open? Or what number would you need to consider opening?
yours
Bernard von Schulmann
US Election - some interesting sites
Where do I start with this one? Maybe with a listing of some interesting sites:
FiveThirtyEight.Com - amazing analysis of the election. I am truly amazed at the work Nate does in crunching the numbers. I have looked at many different sites that track the US election and this one is so far ahead of all the rest to make the others all irrelevant. As one of the first people in BC that tried to do something similar with one of our elections, I know the work that needs to go into something like this to make it work. For those that do not remember, back in early 1999 I put together an analysis that predicted the NDP wipeout of 2001, though I thought they would take four seats and not the two that they ended up with.
Rasmussen Reports has a lot of in depth polling and they seem to the most consistent national pollster this election cycle. As someone that did some polling back in the late 1980s and worked on a business plan for a polling company in the late 1990s, I know a lot more than most how polling is done and why 9 time out of 10 the political polling that is done in Canada and the US is no better than reading chicken entrails.
I am also really enjoying the Rasmussen Markets. This is your chance to buy and sell shares in election outcomes. I have been a junkie of Election Stockmarkets for years and taken part in the UBC ESM each time I could (there is a cute tax benefit to the UBC ESM - you get a tutition payment notice as if it was a course and if you do well you make more money that put in, this means you can get a tax receipt and your money back).
I would be happier if the Rasmussen Markets used real money, but still, it is a fun exercise and really gives a strong sense of the ebb and flow in a political campaign from day to day. ESM have been very good predictors of election results and tend to spot trends before they are noted in polls. The ones that have worked well are the ones that have people use their own money, how well the Rasmussen one will work is questionable, though the results mirror FiveThirtyEight closely.
My one complaint with the Rasmussen Markets is that there are too many contracts available and not enough people paying attention to them all. It means there are many that are not traded very often.
Another interesting site is Real Clear Politics. They have a concise listing of all of the polls each and every day. They also have their one electoral college estimate, but it is not as good as FiveThirtyEight.
I spent a lot of time at CNN for the primary race, but their summer coverage of the election is not enough for an election junkie like myself.
So why do I pay this much attention to the US election? I am an admitted election junkie - go to sites like this. I also pay attention because I live in Canada and no nation is as dependent on the US economy as we are.
FiveThirtyEight.Com - amazing analysis of the election. I am truly amazed at the work Nate does in crunching the numbers. I have looked at many different sites that track the US election and this one is so far ahead of all the rest to make the others all irrelevant. As one of the first people in BC that tried to do something similar with one of our elections, I know the work that needs to go into something like this to make it work. For those that do not remember, back in early 1999 I put together an analysis that predicted the NDP wipeout of 2001, though I thought they would take four seats and not the two that they ended up with.
Rasmussen Reports has a lot of in depth polling and they seem to the most consistent national pollster this election cycle. As someone that did some polling back in the late 1980s and worked on a business plan for a polling company in the late 1990s, I know a lot more than most how polling is done and why 9 time out of 10 the political polling that is done in Canada and the US is no better than reading chicken entrails.
I am also really enjoying the Rasmussen Markets. This is your chance to buy and sell shares in election outcomes. I have been a junkie of Election Stockmarkets for years and taken part in the UBC ESM each time I could (there is a cute tax benefit to the UBC ESM - you get a tutition payment notice as if it was a course and if you do well you make more money that put in, this means you can get a tax receipt and your money back).
I would be happier if the Rasmussen Markets used real money, but still, it is a fun exercise and really gives a strong sense of the ebb and flow in a political campaign from day to day. ESM have been very good predictors of election results and tend to spot trends before they are noted in polls. The ones that have worked well are the ones that have people use their own money, how well the Rasmussen one will work is questionable, though the results mirror FiveThirtyEight closely.
My one complaint with the Rasmussen Markets is that there are too many contracts available and not enough people paying attention to them all. It means there are many that are not traded very often.
Another interesting site is Real Clear Politics. They have a concise listing of all of the polls each and every day. They also have their one electoral college estimate, but it is not as good as FiveThirtyEight.
I spent a lot of time at CNN for the primary race, but their summer coverage of the election is not enough for an election junkie like myself.
So why do I pay this much attention to the US election? I am an admitted election junkie - go to sites like this. I also pay attention because I live in Canada and no nation is as dependent on the US economy as we are.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Sayward Forest Canoe Route
Sunday morning I am headed off to do the Sayward Forest Canoe Route with the Scout troop.
I am looking forward to doing this. Daniel and Ben will be along and the weather is supposed to be very good.
I am looking forward to doing this. Daniel and Ben will be along and the weather is supposed to be very good.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Federal By-Elections
We now have three by-elections called for September 8th.
Westmount-Ville-Marie
This one is one the Liberals have to win, no they have to win in a landslide. Marc Garneau is running for Dion in this riding and anything less than that is a nail in his coffin. If the Liberals come as close as they did in Vancouver to losing in the by-election I would look to the Liberals replacing Dion before the year is out.
Saint Lambert
This should be an easy win by the BQ, but I would not count out the Conservatives. Everything depends on who can pull in the federalist vote. Patrick Clune is a know quantity for the Conservatives and did well in 2006. The area is one that was all PC under Mulroney. If Harper wins in this one, Dion is in trouble and there is no danger of a federal election till October of 2009.
Guelph
This could be an interesting three way race. The NDP have managed to get a star candidate in Tom King, he of the Dead Dog Cafe comedy on CBC radio. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have nominated strong candidates.
If I were to predict who will win, I would say Gloria Kovacs of the Conservative is the most likely, followed by Tom King and finally Frank Valeriote of the Liberals.
Overall
All three ridings should be easy wins for the Liberals, the most likely result is one Liberal and two Conservatives. That result would almost certainly push the federal Liberal party into a feeding frenzy and they will eat their young and destroy themselves.
The NDP has an outside chance of a seat and the BQ has not bad odds to win one. In any case it is unlikely that the Liberals will be able to win more than one. Dion will be going back into the house in the fall with 96 MPs, this is down seven from the election. Odds are we will see a house in the fall with 128 Conservatives (+4), 96 Liberals (-7), 49 BQ(-2), 30 NDP(+1) and 4 Ind (+3).
We all can only hope that a bad showing by the Liberals will throw the party into turmoil and hasten a total collapse. Canada needs to see an end to the Liberal party federally as quickly as possible. Only the Conservatives and the NDP are capable of governing in the interests of Canadians nationally and not in the interest of personal political gain as the Liberals seem to have always done.
Westmount-Ville-Marie
This one is one the Liberals have to win, no they have to win in a landslide. Marc Garneau is running for Dion in this riding and anything less than that is a nail in his coffin. If the Liberals come as close as they did in Vancouver to losing in the by-election I would look to the Liberals replacing Dion before the year is out.
Saint Lambert
This should be an easy win by the BQ, but I would not count out the Conservatives. Everything depends on who can pull in the federalist vote. Patrick Clune is a know quantity for the Conservatives and did well in 2006. The area is one that was all PC under Mulroney. If Harper wins in this one, Dion is in trouble and there is no danger of a federal election till October of 2009.
Guelph
This could be an interesting three way race. The NDP have managed to get a star candidate in Tom King, he of the Dead Dog Cafe comedy on CBC radio. Both the Conservatives and Liberals have nominated strong candidates.
If I were to predict who will win, I would say Gloria Kovacs of the Conservative is the most likely, followed by Tom King and finally Frank Valeriote of the Liberals.
Overall
All three ridings should be easy wins for the Liberals, the most likely result is one Liberal and two Conservatives. That result would almost certainly push the federal Liberal party into a feeding frenzy and they will eat their young and destroy themselves.
The NDP has an outside chance of a seat and the BQ has not bad odds to win one. In any case it is unlikely that the Liberals will be able to win more than one. Dion will be going back into the house in the fall with 96 MPs, this is down seven from the election. Odds are we will see a house in the fall with 128 Conservatives (+4), 96 Liberals (-7), 49 BQ(-2), 30 NDP(+1) and 4 Ind (+3).
We all can only hope that a bad showing by the Liberals will throw the party into turmoil and hasten a total collapse. Canada needs to see an end to the Liberal party federally as quickly as possible. Only the Conservatives and the NDP are capable of governing in the interests of Canadians nationally and not in the interest of personal political gain as the Liberals seem to have always done.
Sea to SKy Highway Closure
Everyone is worrying about the slide that cut Whistler off from direct access to Vancouver. What everyone seems to forget is that the Sea to Sky highway continues on all the way to the Sky end of it - the start of the Cariboo.
Getting from Whistler to Kamloops is about about a three to four hour trip on the Hwy 99 and then Hwy 97. Kamloops has a significant airport in it that can service most jets. The trip from the Vancouver Airport to Whistler is two hours. Kamloops is only marginally further away.
Driving from Whistler to Seattle via Vancouver takes you about four hours. Driving to Seattle via the Fraser Canyon takes about six hours.
What the government should be looking at for the Olympics is an upgrade of Highway 99 from Pemberton to Lillooet and Highway 12 from Lillooet to Lytton. The simple reality is that the route from Lillooet to Whistler is more likely to be open in the winter than the road from Whistler to Vancouver.
Lillooet is the closest site northwards from Whistler where you can reliably land a plane. The government needs to put money into that airport now to make it ready to serve the Olympics as it is the best option for getting people to the area in the winter.
The last time there was a longer blockage of the road was in May 1996 when there was a major slide near the former town of Garibaldi between Squamish and Whistler. The road was closed for about six weeks that time. Whistler did not die because of it.
The Olympic Committee has to promote both directions out of Whistler in the Olympics.
Getting from Whistler to Kamloops is about about a three to four hour trip on the Hwy 99 and then Hwy 97. Kamloops has a significant airport in it that can service most jets. The trip from the Vancouver Airport to Whistler is two hours. Kamloops is only marginally further away.
Driving from Whistler to Seattle via Vancouver takes you about four hours. Driving to Seattle via the Fraser Canyon takes about six hours.
What the government should be looking at for the Olympics is an upgrade of Highway 99 from Pemberton to Lillooet and Highway 12 from Lillooet to Lytton. The simple reality is that the route from Lillooet to Whistler is more likely to be open in the winter than the road from Whistler to Vancouver.
Lillooet is the closest site northwards from Whistler where you can reliably land a plane. The government needs to put money into that airport now to make it ready to serve the Olympics as it is the best option for getting people to the area in the winter.
The last time there was a longer blockage of the road was in May 1996 when there was a major slide near the former town of Garibaldi between Squamish and Whistler. The road was closed for about six weeks that time. Whistler did not die because of it.
The Olympic Committee has to promote both directions out of Whistler in the Olympics.
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